The Home Depot, Inc. (HD)
- 2Q26 Revenue: $47.9B, +5.8% YoY, beat estimates by $660M
- 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $4.92, beat estimates by $0.19
- FY26 Guidance: Reaffirmed sales growth +2.5% to +4.5%, comps 0% to +2%, adjusted EPS growth 0% to +4%, adjusted operating margin 12.8–13.0%.
- Dividends/Share buybacks: Quarterly dividend remains $2.33/share; HD paid ~$2.3bn of dividends during Q2.
- Comment: This was a solid quarter with improving underlying demand. Comparable sales accelerated to 1.7%, repair and maintenance spending remained resilient, and both DIY and Pro customers contributed to growth. Smaller projects continued to outperform as homeowners maintained existing properties despite weak housing turnover, while investments in Pro distribution, nationwide express delivery and digital capabilities should support incremental market-share gains. The key issue is earnings quality. Home Depot received US$730M of tariff refunds, of which US$685M reduced COGS, providing a meaningful temporary gross-margin benefit. Larger renovation projects also remain weak as elevated mortgage rates and limited housing turnover constrain financing-intensive spending. Management’s decision to maintain rather than raise FY26 guidance despite the Q2 beat suggests limited confidence that the current earnings upside will fully persist into 2H26. Shares rose approximately 1.5% following the earnings release despite a weak broader equity market. The principal variables to monitor are U.S. comparable-sales acceleration, large-project demand, Pro market-share gains, housing turnover, mortgage rates and the normalization of margins following the tariff-refund benefit. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $325 to $360. Neutral Outlook.
The Home Depot, Inc.（HD)
- 26财年第二季度营收：479亿美元，同比增长5.8%，超出预期6.6亿美元
- 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益：4.92美元，超出预期0.19美元
- 26财年全年指引：重申全年销售增长2.5%–4.5%，同店销售增长0%–2%，调整后EPS增长0%–4%，调整后营业利润率12.8%–13.0%
- 股息与回购：维持季度股息每股2.33美元；本季度派发约23亿美元股息
- 短评：本季度表现稳健，底层需求呈现改善迹象。同店销售增速加快至1.7%，维修与保养（R&M）支出保持韧性，DIY与Pro（专业承包商）客户共同驱动增长。由于房屋周转率低迷，房主更倾向于维护现有房产，小型项目表现持续优于大型项目。同时，公司在Pro配送网络、全国快递及数字化能力上的持续投资，有望支持其进一步抢占市场份额。然而，盈利质量是核心隐忧。公司本季度获得了7.3亿美元的关税退款，其中6.85亿美元直接冲减了销货成本（COGS），为毛利率带来了显著但一次性的临时利好。此外，受高抵押贷款利率和房屋周转率低迷限制，依赖融资的大型翻新项目依然疲软。值得注意的是，尽管Q2业绩超预期，管理层选择“重申”而非“上调”全年指引，暗示对当前的盈利超预期能否延续至下半年缺乏足够信心，态度偏向谨慎。财报后，在整体股市疲软的背景下，HD股价仍温和上涨约1.5%，显示其作为高质量防御性消费股的资金避险属性。后续关键变量包括：（1）美国同店销售能否持续加速；（2）大型翻新项目需求何时随宏观利率环境改善而复苏；（3）Pro客户市场份额的获取进度；（4）美国房地产市场房屋周转率与抵押贷款利率走势；（5）剔除关税退款一次性利好后，毛利率的常态化回归路径。Home Depot 凭借强大的供应链壁垒、深厚的Pro客户护城河及稳健的现金流，在宏观逆风中展现了极强的经营韧性。但在房地产周期真正反转前，其增长上限仍受制于大型项目的低迷。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：325美元至360美元。中性前景。
Baidu, Inc. (BIDU)
- 2Q26 Revenue: $4.62B, -4.0% YoY, miss estimates by $120M
- 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPADS: $1.06, miss estimates by $0.40
- 3Q26 Guidance: No explicit guidance. Management remains committed to elevated AI investment despite near-term margin pressure, with AI increasingly becoming the core growth engine.
- Dividends/ Share Buybacks: Baidu has returned approximately US$259M to shareholders through share repurchases since the beginning of 1Q26 under its existing repurchase programme.
- Comment: This was a weak quarter despite continued strength in AI. The key positive was AI Cloud Infrastructure revenue rising 50% YoY to RMB7.3B, with GPU Cloud revenue surging 283%, while AI-powered businesses now represent half of General Business revenue. Apollo Go also continued its international expansion, with Baidu building a credible portfolio across AI cloud, autonomous driving and AI applications. The key issue is that AI growth is still insufficient to offset deterioration in the legacy franchise. Online marketing revenue declined 19% YoY, while AI-powered revenue fell 8% sequentially and AI Cloud Infrastructure declined 17% QoQ. Non-GAAP EPS missed consensus by roughly 27%, highlighting the earnings pressure from the transition toward more capital-intensive AI businesses. Free cash flow was also negative at approximately RMB8.0B, largely reflecting elevated AI infrastructure capex. Shares fell approximately 13% following the earnings release. The principal variables to monitor are the stabilization of advertising revenue, AI Cloud growth, GPU Cloud monetisation, AI capex and free cash flow, Apollo Go commercialization, and whether AI-powered revenue can resume sequential growth. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $85 to $120. Positive Outlook.
Baidu, Inc.（BIDU)
- 26财年第二季度营收：46.2亿美元，同比下降4.0%，低于预期1.2亿美元
- 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每ADS收益（EPADS）：1.06美元，大幅低于预期0.40美元
- 26财年第三季度指引：未提供明确财务指引。管理层强调，尽管短期面临利润率压力，仍将坚持高水平的AI投资，AI正日益成为公司的核心增长引擎。
- 股息与回购：自26财年第一季度初以来，百度已通过现有回购计划向股东返还约2.59亿美元。
- 短评：本季度整体表现疲软，呈现出“AI高增长难掩传统业务衰退”的转型阵痛期特征。核心亮点在于AI业务的结构性突破：AI云基础设施收入同比大增50%至73亿元人民币，其中GPU云服务收入暴增283%。目前，AI驱动的业务已占据公司核心业务收入的半壁江山。同时，自动驾驶出行服务平台萝卜快跑（Apollo Go），百度在AI云、自动驾驶及AI应用端已构建起极具竞争力的产品矩阵。然而，核心痛点在于AI的增量尚不足以对冲传统基本盘的恶化：在线营销（广告），直接拖累整体营收缩水。此外，AI相关业务环比也出现波动（AI驱动收入环比降8%，AI云基础设施环比降17%）。由于向资本密集型的AI基础设施转型，非GAAP EPS大幅低于预期约27%；同时，受高昂的AI资本开支（capex）影响，自由现金流转负至约-80亿元人民币。财报后股价大跌约13%，反映出市场对百度“旧引擎熄火、新引擎烧钱”这一转型期财务阵痛的担忧，尤其是在宏观广告需求疲软与AI变现仍需时日的背景下，资金对短期盈利与现金流恶化极为敏感。后续关键变量包括：（1）传统搜索与广告收入能否企稳回升；（2）AI云及GPU云服务的商业化变现速度与毛利改善；（3）AI资本开支的节奏及其对自由现金流的长期影响；（4）萝卜快跑在国内外市场的商业化落地与盈亏平衡进度；（5）AI驱动收入能否恢复环比正增长。百度正处于从“互联网搜索巨头”向“AI底层基础设施与应用提供商”跨越的关键深水区。虽然短期面临传统业务下滑与高额资本开支的双重挤压，但其在文心大模型、算力云及自动驾驶领域的长期卡位极具战略价值。若AI商业化拐点如期到来，估值有望迎来深度重塑。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：85美元至120美元。积极前景。
