SGX SP
Cash-equities revival, record FICC volumes, and capital returns create a higher-quality earnings mix
KEY INSIGHTS #1
Singapore equity-market revival has finally become an earnings driver.
This is the biggest change to the SGX thesis. FY26 cash-equities net revenue surged 28.1% YoY and now contributes more than one-third of group revenue. Singapore also hosted 21 equity listings versus six in FY25, raising S$4.1B. The liquidity improvement is equally important. In May 2026, securities market turnover jumped 70% YoY to S$45.8B, while securities daily average value increased 79% to S$2.4B, its highest level since October 2007. Activity outside STI constituents has also accelerated, suggesting the recovery is broadening beyond banks and large caps.
KEY INSIGHTS #2
FICC means SGX no longer needs Singapore IPOs alone to grow.
FY26 FICC net revenue increased 17% to S$376.1M, approximately 25.5% of group revenue, with FX and commodities reaching new volume records. This is strategically important. SGX’s FX, iron ore, freight and other derivatives franchises monetise volatility and Asian cross-border flows rather than relying solely on Singapore’s domestic economy.
SCI SP
Alinta is the rerating catalyst, but 13 Aug results are the immediate binary
KEY INSIGHTS #1
Alinta transforms Sembcorp from a Singapore-centric generator into an Australia growth platform.
The A$6.5bn Alinta acquisition completed on 11 June, adding 3.4GW of operating generation and 10.4GW of development pipeline. Australia is now effectively Sembcorp’s second core market. The attraction is not simply buying another utility. Alinta combines retail customers, dispatchable generation and a substantial renewables/firming pipeline. That gives Sembcorp exposure to Australia’s structural need for batteries, renewables and firm generation as coal exits the system.
KEY INSIGHTS #2
Singapore gas weakness looks increasingly priced in; Alinta changes the earnings bridge.
FY25 Gas & Related Services underlying profit fell 4% to S$701m, with weaker UK performance and narrower Singapore generation spreads. Management has also warned that newly contracted Singapore gas volumes face lower margins in 2026. That is why the stock has struggled despite continued renewable growth. The important shift is that from 2H26 onward, investors should increasingly model.
1810 HK
AI memory-bandwidth bottleneck, DDR5 interface dominance, and new interconnect products driving margin expansion
KEY INSIGHTS #1
EV remains the strongest structural growth engine; 550k FY26 deliveries are the key bar.
Management reiterated a 550,000-unit 2026 EV delivery target after 1Q26 despite quarterly deliveries falling sequentially as the original SU7 transitioned and production was reallocated. The EV business generated roughly RMB19bn of 1Q26 revenue, while deliveries still increased 6.6% YoY. The important distinction is between temporary production/model-transition weakness and demand destruction. If Xiaomi can execute toward 550k units while maintaining ~20% automotive gross margins, the EV operation moves rapidly toward becoming a meaningful standalone earnings contributor rather than an R&D drag.
KEY INSIGHTS #2
Xiaomi’s longer-term multiple increasingly depends on proving the “Human × Car × Home” ecosystem actually monetises.
The strategic attraction is the interaction between Xiaomi’s installed smartphone/IoT base and EV ownership. Cars potentially increase ecosystem stickiness across phones, wearables, appliances, AI assistants and connected-home products. That ecosystem thesis becomes much more valuable if Xiaomi successfully expands its EV business internationally.
6809 HK
AI memory-bandwidth bottleneck, DDR5 interface dominance, and new interconnect products driving margin expansion
KEY INSIGHTS #1
AI servers are creating a memory-bandwidth bottleneck.
AI server architecture increasingly requires higher memory capacity and bandwidth alongside GPU compute. That drives migration toward newer DDR5 generations and higher-performance memory architectures such as MRDIMM. Montage’s 1Q26 results already show this transition. Shipments of DDR5 RCD increased significantly, with Gen3 and Gen4 taking a larger proportion of the mix. Revenue from MRCD/MDB, PCIe Retimer, CKD and CXL MXC also increased materially. The next step is faster DDR5. Montage began sampling a 9,200 MT/s DDR5 RCD in June, following mass production of Gen4 DDR5 RCD last year.
KEY INSIGHTS #2
PCIe/CXL opens another AI interconnect TAM beyond memory modules.
Montage launched its PCIe 6.x/CXL 3.x Active Electrical Cable solution in January, using its own PCIe Retimer technology to connect CPUs, GPUs, NICs and storage across increasingly complex AI data-centre architectures. This is strategically important. The original Montage thesis was predominantly DDR memory-interface silicon. The emerging opportunity encompasses memory expansion, retimers, clocking and high-speed electrical interconnect.
COHR US
AI optics demand is accelerating faster than capacity; 1.6T + InP are the key earnings engines
KEY INSIGHTS #1
AI networking is moving from 800G → 1.6T, and optical content per GPU cluster keeps rising.
AI clusters are becoming increasingly constrained by bandwidth, distance and power consumption. That drives faster adoption of optical connectivity as clusters scale to hundreds of thousands of accelerators. Coherent’s FY4Q26 revenue reached US$2.05B, +34% YoY, above consensus around US$1.99B, while adjusted EPS reached US$1.74 versus approximately US$1.62 expected. Management attributed the strength to exceptionally strong datacenter and communications demand.
KEY INSIGHTS #2
CPO creates another TAM rather than ending the pluggable-optics cycle.
Coherent supplies technology across several architectures: silicon photonics, InP, VCSEL, high-power CW lasers and optical components. Management is already developing multiple CPO architectures. So the transition from pluggable optics → near-packaged optics → CPO potentially shifts where Coherent’s content sits rather than removing it.
CVX US
Hess integration is outperforming, record production, and oil-price upside is flowing straight into FCF
KEY INSIGHTS #1
Oil backdrop + Guyana/Tengiz give Chevron unusually strong volume and commodity-price torque.
Chevron just delivered 4.07mmboe/d of 2Q26 production, +20% YoY, with U.S. production reaching a record. The increase was driven largely by the Hess assets alongside continued Permian and Gulf of America growth. This is particularly attractive in the current elevated-oil environment. Higher commodity prices were a major contributor to Chevron’s 2Q earnings surge, while Tengiz distributions and higher production materially strengthened cash generation.
KEY INSIGHTS #2
Hess is already exceeding the acquisition underwriting.
Chevron has achieved US$1.5B of annual run-rate Hess synergies, already 50% above the original US$1B target, within one year of closing. That makes the Hess acquisition increasingly difficult to frame as simply an expensive Guyana purchase. Chevron acquired a portfolio of low-cost barrels and is extracting more cost savings than initially promised. At the same time, Chevron reached US$3B of structural annual run-rate cost reductions six months ahead of schedule, against its US$3–4B end-2026 objective.
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