Technical Analysis: 12 August 2026

Sea Limited (SE) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $7.78B, +47.9% YoY, beat estimates by $690M 

• 2Q26 GAAP EPS: $0.70, miss estimates by $0.06 

• 3Q26 Guidance: Management maintained Shopee’s FY26 target for roughly 25% GMV growth while keeping full-year Shopee adjusted EBITDA at least at FY25’s absolute level. The emphasis remains on gaining scale while investing in logistics, content, AI and user engagement. 

• Comment: This was a strong growth print despite the EPS miss. Shopee’s core marketplace revenue surged 65.6% YoY to $4.3B, while Shopee adjusted EBITDA increased 12.2% to $255M. Monee revenue jumped 58.9% to $1.4B, with loans outstanding up 62.5% to $11.1B while 90+ day NPLs remained stable at just 1.0%. Garena also strengthened, with bookings +15.5% and adjusted EBITDA +16.7%. The most important read-through is that all three engines are now growing simultaneously. Shopee is gaining scale without returning to material losses, Monee is compounding rapidly without an obvious deterioration in credit quality, and Garena has moved from a declining cash cow back into growth. The trade-off is that Sea is deliberately reinvesting aggressively, which explains why earnings growth is lagging revenue growth. Shares surged 14.6% to $131.51 following results, substantially stronger than the initial premarket reaction. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $125 to $150. Positive Outlook. 

 

Sea Limited（SE) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：77.8亿美元，同比增长47.9%，大幅超出预期6.9亿美元 

• 26财年第二季度公认会计准则每股收益：0.70美元，略低于预期0.06美元 

• 26财年全年指引：维持Shopee全年GMV增长约25%的目标，预计全年Shopee调整后EBITDA至少与25财年绝对值持平。战略重心依然是通过投资物流、内容、AI及用户互动来抢占规模优势。 

• 短评：本季度展现了极为强劲的增长动能，尽管盈利微幅不及预期，但三大核心业务引擎罕见地实现了同步高增长，基本面全面向好：Shopee（电商）：核心市场收入同比暴增65.6%至43亿美元，调整后EBITDA增长12.2%至2.55亿美元。成功在扩张规模的同时维持了盈利底线，未陷入亏损泥潭。SeaMoney（金融科技）：收入跃升58.9%至14亿美元，未偿贷款规模大增62.5%至111亿美元，且90天以上不良贷款率（NPL）稳控在极低的1.0%，实现了规模爆发与资产质量的双优。Garena（游戏）：流水（bookings）增长15.5%，调整后EBITDA增长16.7%，标志着该业务已成功摆脱衰退周期，从单纯的“现金牛”重回增长轨道。盈利增速落后于营收增速的核心原因在于公司正主动采取激进的再投资策略（加大物流履约、AI与内容投入），以巩固长期护城河。市场对此给予了极高评价，财报后股价大涨14.6%至131.51美元，走势远强于盘初期的反应，表明投资者高度认可其“三驾马车”并驾齐驱的稀缺基本面与战略执行力。后续关键变量包括：（1）Shopee在拉美及东南亚市场的市占率防守与AI赋能效率；（2）SeaMoney信贷规模的扩张边界与宏观环境下的风控稳定性；（3）Garena老游戏生命周期管理及新游戏Pipeline的接力表现；（4）物流履约成本（Fulfillment cost）。Sea Limited已彻底走出前两年的战略收缩与阵痛期，重新进入“高质量扩张”的新周期。三大业务协同效应显著，现金流充沛且增长确定性高。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：125美元至150美元。积极前景。 

 

On Holding AG (ONON) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: CHF 850.3M, +13.5% YoY 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: CHF 0.35 

• FY26 Guidance: Cut FY26 constant-currency sales growth outlook to the low-20% range from at least 23%, implying CHF3.47B–CHF3.56B of reported revenue at current FX. However, gross-margin guidance was raised to at least 65.0%, while adjusted EBITDA margin guidance remained 19.5%–20.0%. 

• Comment: This was fundamentally better than the share-price reaction suggests, but the revenue miss and guidance cut matter. DTC grew 34.3% constant currency and reached a record 45.7% of sales, while gross margin expanded to an exceptional 65.4%. Apparel grew 56.2% and accessories 102.2% constant currency, suggesting On is successfully broadening beyond footwear. The weakness is wholesale and the Americas. Americas growth slowed to 13.0% constant currency versus 20.5% in EMEA and 54.7% in APAC. Management is deliberately restricting wholesale sell-in to preserve full-price positioning, but the market interpreted this as a meaningful deceleration in near-term growth. Shares plunged about 19% to $31.29 following results, near the 52-week low. The principal variables are U.S. demand, wholesale reacceleration, DTC mix, Cloudboom/Cloudsurfer product launches and whether the 65%+ gross margin can persist. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $27 to $35. Neutral Outlook. 

 

On Holding AG（ONON) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：8.503亿瑞士法郎，同比增长13.5%（略低于市场预期） 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益：0.35瑞士法郎 

• 26财年全年指引调整：下调全年固定汇率销售增长预期至“低20%区间”（原为至少23%），按当前汇率折算全年报告营收约为34.7亿–35.6亿瑞士法郎；毛利率指引上调至至少65.0%；调整后EBITDA利润率指引维持在19.5%–20.0% 

• 短评：本季度基本面实际上优于股价的剧烈反应，但营收不及预期与下调增长指引成为了市场的核心痛点。亮点在于DTC（直接面向消费者）渠道按固定汇率大增34.3%，创下占总销售额45.7%的历史新高；毛利率更是扩张至惊人的65.4%。品类拓展成效显著，服装与配饰分别大增56.2%和102.2%，证明On正成功突破单一鞋类品牌的局限，向全品类运动生活方式品牌演进。然而，批发渠道与美洲市场表现疲软：美洲市场增速放缓至13.0%（对比EMEA的20.5%和亚太的54.7%）。管理层解释称，主动限制批发出货量（sell-in）是为了维护品牌的全价销售定位（避免渠道打折促销），但市场将其负面解读为近期增长动能的实质性衰退。财报后股价暴跌约19%至31.29美元，逼近52周低点，反映出高估值成长股在增速放缓预期下的剧烈“杀估值”反应。后续关键变量包括：（1）美国市场消费需求能否企稳回升；（2）批发渠道在库存健康化后能否重新加速；（3）高毛利的DTC渠道占比能否继续提升；（4）Cloudboom、Cloudsurfer等核心新鞋款的发布与市场反馈；（5）65%以上的超高毛利率是否具有可持续性。On在品牌势能与品类扩张上依然具备长期竞争力，但短期需消化主动控制批发节奏带来的增速阵痛。若美国市场回暖且新品接力顺利，估值有望迎来修复。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：27美元至35美元。中性前景。 

 

 

Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) 

• 4Q26 Revenue: $11.12B, miss estimates by $440M 

• 4Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.70, beat estimates by $0.74 

• FY27 Guidance: Management expects FY27 revenue to exceed $50B, implying >28% growth from FY26. Near-term margin normalization is the key issue: the exceptionally strong 4Q product/customer mix is unlikely to persist, with 1QFY27 guidance implying gross margins returning toward the low-double-digit area.  

• Comment: This was a much better earnings print than the revenue miss suggests. Revenue came in slightly light, but the $1.70 adjusted EPS was almost twice consensus because gross margin recovered dramatically. That is particularly important for SMCI because the investment debate had shifted from AI demand toward whether increasingly large rack-scale deployments were becoming structurally low-margin. The demand picture remains strong. FY26 revenue grew 78% to $39.1B, and FY27 revenue guidance above $50B implies another substantial step-up as GB300/NVL72 and other rack-scale AI deployments ramp. The issue is earnings quality: 4Q’s ~17.5% gross margin benefited from unusually favorable customer/product mix and should not be annualized. The principal variables are gross-margin normalization, conversion of the AI-system order pipeline, working-capital requirements, customer concentration and the company’s ability to scale liquid-cooled rack production without sacrificing profitability. 1Q27 recommended trading range: $29 to $39. Neutral Outlook. 

 

Super Micro Computer, Inc.（SMCI) 

• 26财年第四季度营收：111.2亿美元，低于预期4.4亿美元 

• 26财年第四季度非公认会计准则每股收益：1.70美元，大幅超出预期0.74美元 

• 27财年全年指引：预计全年营收突破500亿美元（隐含较26财年的391亿美元增长超28%）。短期利润率回归常态是核心焦点：第四季度异常强劲的产品与客户组合难以持续，27财年第一季度指引暗示毛利率将回落至较低的两位数（low-double-digit）区间。 

• 短评：本季度财报的实质表现远好于“营收不及预期”的表象。尽管营收微幅miss，但调整后EPS近乎翻倍于市场预期，核心驱动力在于毛利率的强劲修复（达到约17.5%）。这一点对SMCI至关重要。此前市场的核心担忧已从“AI需求是否见顶”转向“大规模机柜级AI系统（rack-scale deployments）”。本季度的高毛利表现有力回应了这一质疑，证明在特定的高附加值产品（如液冷解决方案）与优质客户组合下，AI服务器硬件仍能实现可观盈利。需求端依然火爆：26财年全年营收大增78%，而27财年超500亿美元的指引，意味着随着英伟达GB300/NVL72等新一代液冷机柜级AI系统的规模交付，公司将迎来新一轮营收跃升。然而，盈利质量与可持续性仍是隐患：四季度17.5%的高毛利率得益于极其有利的短期因素，不具备年化基础。随着产品组合常态化和行业竞争加剧，毛利率回落至10%-15%的常态化区间是必然趋势。此外，大规模机柜交付对营运资金（working capital）的占用极大，且客户集中度风险依然存在。后续关键变量包括：（1）毛利率向常态化区间的回归路径与企稳能力；（2）AI系统庞大订单管道的实际交付与收入转化节奏；（3）液冷机柜产能扩张与供应链管理能力（能否在不牺牲利润的前提下交付）；（4）营运资金周转效率；（5）核心大客户（如CSP、Tier 2云厂商）。SMCI作为AI算力基础设施的核心“卖水人”，需求确定性极强，但硬件组装业务的低毛利本质与资金密集属性限制了其估值上限。市场正在重新校准对其“常态化盈利能力”的预期。27财年第一季度建议交易区间：29美元至39美元。中性前景。 

 

CoreWeave, Inc. (CRWV) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $2.58B, +113.2% YoY, beat estimates by $20M 

• 2Q26 GAAP EPS: –$1.14, beat estimates by $0.33 

• FY26 Guidance: Raised FY26 revenue guidance to $12.4B–$13.2B and adjusted operating income to $960M–$1.15B. 3Q26 revenue is guided to $3.45B–$3.60B, with adjusted operating income of $200M–$260M. Management expects 4Q adjusted operating margin to reach the low teens. 

• Comment: This was a strong beat-and-raise quarter. Adjusted EBITDA doubled YoY to $1.51B and adjusted operating income improved from $21M in 1Q to $128M, demonstrating the operating leverage investors have been waiting for. More importantly, CoreWeave added >$25B of commitments immediately after quarter-end and recently signed contracts carrying expected contribution margins 5–10ppt above recent deals. Demand visibility is exceptional. Active power reached 1.5GW, contracted power has subsequently increased to 4.2GW, and management sees visibility toward ~6GW including options/LOIs. CoreWeave also completed the industry’s first bring-up and validation of NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72, positioning it well for the next GPU cycle. The risk remains the balance sheet. Interest expense reached $640M in 2Q and is guided to $860M–$940M in 3Q, while capex is accelerating dramatically. CoreWeave therefore needs backlog conversion, utilization and operating-margin expansion to outrun its financing burden. This remains a very high-beta way to express the AI-compute thesis rather than a conventional cloud compounder. Shares jumped approximately 13.5% after hours to $102.55 following the results. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $80 to $130. Neutral Outlook. 

 

CoreWeave, Inc.（CRWV) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：25.8亿美元，同比增长113.2%，超出预期2000万美元 

• 26财年第二季度公认会计准则每股亏损：1.14美元，优于预期0.33美元（亏损显著收窄） 

• 26财年指引更新：全年营收指引上调至124亿–132亿美元，调整后营业利润上调至9.6亿–11.5亿美元；Q3营收指引为34.5亿–36.0亿美元，调整后营业利润为2.0亿–2.6亿美元；管理层预计Q4调整后营业利润率将达到较低的两位数（low teens） 

• 短评：本季度为强劲的“超预期+上调指引”表现。调整后EBITDA同比翻倍至15.1亿美元，调整后营业利润从Q1的2100万美元大幅跃升至1.28亿美元，展现了投资者期待已久的运营杠杆释放。更为震撼的是其需求爆发力：CoreWeave在季度末后立即新增了超250亿美元的承诺订单，且近期签署的合同预期边际贡献率比前期交易高出5至10个百分点。需求能见度极高——活跃电力容量达1.5GW，签约电力容量随后增至4.2GW，包含期权与意向书（LOIs）在内的总能见度接近6GW。此外，公司完成了业内首次英伟达Vera Rubin NVL72系统的启动与验证，为其在下一代GPU周期中抢占绝对先机。然而，核心风险仍在于沉重的资产负债表。Q2利息支出高达6.4亿美元，Q3指引进一步攀升至8.6亿–9.4亿美元，且资本开支正在急剧加速。因此，CoreWeave必须通过加速积压订单转化、提升产能利用率并扩张营业利润率，来“跑赢”其庞大的融资成本。这使得该股更像是一种表达AI算力投资逻辑的极高贝塔（high-beta），而非传统的稳健复利型云服务商。财报后盘后股价大涨约13.5%至102.55美元，反映市场对其需求爆发与杠杆释放的高度认可。后续关键变量包括：（1）超250亿美元新增订单的实际交付与收入转化节奏；（2）GPU集群的产能利用率与高毛利合同的占比提升；（3）利息支出与巨额资本开支对现金流的挤压程度；（4）下一代GPU（如Vera Rubin）。CoreWeave作为AI原生云基础设施的领军者，增长爆发力惊人，但高杠杆与重资产模式使其对宏观利率与AI资本开支周期高度敏感。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：80美元至130美元。中性前景。 

 

Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) 

• 4Q26 Revenue: $1.01B, +110.1% YoY, beat estimates by $22.3M 

• 4Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $3.23, beat estimates by $0.26  

• 1Q27 Guidance: 1Q27 revenue is guided to $1.225B–$1.275B, implying roughly 24% sequential growth at the midpoint, with adjusted EPS of $4.05–$4.35. Both are above prior Street expectations. AI/cloud optical demand remains supply-constrained, with Lumentum expanding manufacturing capacity to address the backlog. 

• Comment: This was an exceptionally strong beat-and-raise. Revenue more than doubled, EPS nearly quadrupled, gross margin crossed 50%, and the 1QFY27 guide implies another substantial sequential acceleration. Demand is being driven by 800G/1.6T optical connectivity, optical circuit switches and next-generation AI networking architectures, positioning Lumentum as one of the clearest optical beneficiaries of hyperscaler AI capex. The principal issue is expectations. LITE has already appreciated dramatically as the market priced in the AI-optics shortage, and even this substantial beat generated only an initial ~3% after-hours gain before shares faded. That suggests investors increasingly require upward revisions rather than simply strong results. The key variables are 1.6T transceiver ramps, laser and OCS capacity expansion, gross-margin sustainability above 50%, and execution against Nvidia and hyperscaler demand. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $700 to $1000. Neutral Outlook. 

 

Lumentum Holdings Inc.（LITE) 

• 26财年第四季度营收：10.1亿美元，同比增长110.1%，超出预期2230万美元 

• 26财年第四季度非公认会计准则每股收益：3.23美元，显著超出预期0.26美元 

• 27财年第一季度指引：营收预计为12.25亿–12.75亿美元（中值隐含环比大幅增长约24%）；调整后EPS预计为4.05–4.35美元；两项指引均高于华尔街此前预期。AI与云光学需求仍面临供给瓶颈，公司正积极扩充制造产能以消化庞大的积压订单。 

• 短评：本季度表现堪称完美，呈现极为强劲的“超预期+上调指引”态势。营收同比翻倍，盈利近乎翻四倍，毛利率成功突破50%，且1Q27指引暗示环比增速将再次大幅跃升。需求爆发的核心驱动力来自800G/1.6T高速光模块、光电路交换机（OCS），这使得Lumentum稳居超大规模客户（hyperscalers）AI资本开支最核心的光学受益者之列。然而，核心博弈点在于“预期透支”。由于市场前期已充分定价了“AI光学器件短缺”的逻辑，LITE股价已积累了巨大涨幅。因此，即便交出如此炸裂的财报，盘后也仅录得约3%的初始涨幅并随后回落。这表明在当前极高的估值水位下，投资者对利好的阈值已被大幅抬高，单纯“业绩好”已不足以推动股价，市场需要的是“预期被持续大幅上调”。后续关键变量包括：（1）1.6T光收发器的量产爬坡与头部客户验证进度；（2）激光器与OCS产能扩张能否匹配爆炸性的订单需求；（3）50%以上的高毛利率在产能扩张期能否持续维持；（4）对英伟达及超大规模云厂商下一代网络架构需求的交付执行力。Lumentum作为AI光通信赛道的绝对龙头之一，基本面正处于历史最佳状态。但“好公司”与“好股票”在极高预期下存在错位，短期股价表现将高度依赖于订单能见度的进一步超预期上修。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：700美元至1000美元。中性前景。