Technical Analysis: 6 August 2026

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $23B, +47.8% YoY, beat estimates by $2.31B 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS:  $8.38, beat estimates by $1.80 

• FY26 Guidance: Raised FY26 revenue guidance to US$85B–US$87B from US$82B–US$85B. Management continues to expect robust demand for obesity and diabetes therapies, supported by international expansion and the launch of oral GLP-1 therapy Foundayo. 

• Dividends/Share Buybacks: Maintained its quarterly dividend. 

• Comment: This was another outstanding quarter. Revenue increased 48% as Mounjaro generated US$9.94B and Zepbound contributed US$4.93B, together accounting for nearly two-thirds of company revenue. Lilly continues to widen its lead in the GLP-1 market through superior efficacy, broader reimbursement and expanding manufacturing capacity. Oncology and neuroscience franchises also contributed positively, providing diversification beyond obesity. The principal issue is valuation rather than fundamentals. Expectations are now exceptionally high after another guidance increase, while capital spending and manufacturing expansion remain elevated to meet demand. Investors will also monitor the commercial ramp of oral GLP-1 Foundayo, competitive responses from Novo Nordisk, and the durability of pricing as payer coverage expands. Shares rose approximately 5%–7% following the earnings release. The key variables are manufacturing capacity expansion, sustained Zepbound and Mounjaro prescription growth, Foundayo adoption, reimbursement trends, and progress across Lilly’s late-stage obesity and Alzheimer’s pipelines. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $1000 to $1400. Neutral Outlook. 

 

Eli Lilly and Company（LLY) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：230亿美元，同比增长47.8%，大幅超出预期23.1亿美元 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益：8.38美元，显著超出预期1.80美元 

• 26财年全年指引上调：营收指引提升至850亿–870亿美元（原为820亿–850亿美元），主因肥胖症与糖尿病药物需求强劲、国际市场扩张及口服GLP-1疗法Foundayo上市 

• 股息：维持季度股息不变 

• 短评：本季度再次展现卓越增长，巩固Lilly在代谢疾病领域的绝对领导地位。Mounjaro（替尔泊肽，糖尿病）和Zepbound（同成分，肥胖症）合计贡献148.7亿美元收入，占公司总营收近65%。凭借更优疗效数据、广泛医保覆盖及快速扩产能力，Lilly正持续拉大与诺和诺德（Novo Nordisk）的GLP-1竞争差距。此外，肿瘤学与神经科学管线（如Alzheimer’s药物donanemab）亦贡献稳健增长，提供重要多元化支撑。然而，核心挑战已从“增长能否持续”转向“估值是否过高”：股价在过去一年大幅上涨，市场对GLP-1长期渗透率、定价权及产能兑现抱有极高预期；公司仍在高强度投入制造与供应链建设（26财年资本开支预计超100亿美元），短期压制自由现金流；投资者密切关注口服GLP-1药物Foundayo的商业化进展、** payer（医保/商保）对高价肥胖药的覆盖可持续性**，以及诺和诺德的竞争反制（如CagriSema等下一代产品）。财报后股价上涨5%–7%，反映市场认可其基本面强度，但涨幅受限于高估值。后续关键变量包括：（1）全球生产基地能否按计划释放产能以满足爆炸性需求；（2）Zepbound/Mounjaro处方量是否维持高双位数增长；（3）Foundayo作为首款口服GLP-1能否实现快速放量；（4）医保谈判中价格压力是否加剧；（5）Alzheimer’s、肥胖症新适应症等后期管线读出结果。Lilly正处于“黄金十年”的起点，GLP-1平台具备平台型药物潜力。但当前估值已充分反映乐观情景，进一步上行需持续超预期兑现。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：1000美元至1400美元。中性前景。 

 

Shopify Inc. (SHOP) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $3.58B, +33.6% YoY, beat estimates by $140M 

• 2Q26 net income: $1.5B 

• FY26 Guidance: Management expects Q3 revenue growth in the low-30% range and gross profit growth in the mid-to-high 20% range, both above Wall Street expectations. Free cash flow margin is also expected to remain healthy despite continued AI investment. 

• Comment: This was an outstanding beat-and-raise quarter. Revenue, GMV, gross profit and adjusted EPS all exceeded expectations, while merchant solutions revenue grew 37% and subscription revenue continued to expand steadily. AI is proving to be a growth accelerator rather than a disruption, with the Sidekick AI assistant seeing a 3.6x increase in daily active users and driving higher merchant engagement. The biggest positive was management’s forward guidance. Investors had been concerned that AI tools would pressure Shopify’s monetization or require excessive spending. Instead, management demonstrated that AI is improving merchant productivity while maintaining strong free cash flow margins. Operating discipline also remained solid despite elevated AI infrastructure investment. Shares surged approximately 18%–22% following the results, one of Shopify’s strongest post-earnings reactions in years. The principal variables to monitor are GMV growth above 30%, merchant adoption of AI tools, free cash flow margin sustainability, enterprise and B2B penetration, and competitive dynamics from Amazon and AI-native commerce platforms. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $110 to $180. Neutral Outlook. 

 

Shopify Inc.（SHOP) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：35.8亿美元，同比增长33.6%，超出预期1.4亿美元 

• 26财年第二季度净利润：15亿美元（显著高于去年同期） 

• 26财年第三季度指引：营收增速预计为“低30%”区间（约30%–33%）；毛利润增速预计为“中高20%”区间（约25%–29%）；自由现金流利润率预计将保持健康水平，尽管持续投入AI 

• 短评：本季度为近年来最强势的“超预期+上调指引”组合之一。GMV（商品交易总额）、订阅收入稳健增长，而商家解决方案收入同比大增37%，显示平台增值服务渗透率持续提升。最大亮点在于AI战略成效显著：AI助手Sidekick日活用户激增3.6倍，不仅未侵蚀变现，反而提升商家活跃度与运营效率，验证AI是“增长加速器”而非成本负担。管理层明确表示，AI投资并未牺牲自由现金流利润率，打消市场对“烧钱换AI”的担忧。财报后股价飙升18%–22%，创多年最佳盘后表现，反映投资者对Shopify从“电商SaaS”向“AI赋能商业操作系统”转型的高度认可。然而，挑战依然存在：（1）亚马逊等巨头在电商服务领域的竞争加剧；（2）新兴AI原生平台（如TikTok Shop、Cursor Commerce）；（3）企业级与B2B客户渗透能否成为下一增长曲线。后续关键变量包括：（1）GMV能否维持30%+增长；（2）Sidekick等AI工具的付费转化与ARPU贡献；（3）自由现金流利润率在AI基础设施投入下的稳定性；（4）国际扩张与高端商户获取进展。Shopify已证明其具备技术前瞻性与卓越执行能力，在AI重塑商业软件的浪潮中占据有利位置。但作为高估值成长股，需持续兑现以支撑当前预期。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：110美元至180美元。中性前景。 

 

 

Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $14.19B, +11.7% YoY, miss estimates by $70M 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.81, beat estimates by $0.01 

• 3Q26 Guidance: 3Q26 Gross Bookings are expected at US$58.25B–US$60.25B, while adjusted EPS is guided to US$0.84–US$0.88, slightly below market expectations. Management also announced plans to invest more than US$10B over the coming years to build the world’s largest autonomous-vehicle platform, targeting operations in 15 cities by year-end 2026.  

• Comment: This was another fundamentally strong operating quarter. Gross Bookings increased 24%, Monthly Active Platform Consumers continued to grow, and both Mobility and Delivery maintained healthy demand despite a softer macro backdrop. Delivery revenue increased 28%, while first-time user additions reached their highest level in five years, demonstrating that Uber continues to gain share across multiple services. The key concern is investment intensity and slowing growth. Revenue growth slowed from 14% in the previous quarter to 12%, management’s 3Q profit outlook came in slightly below expectations, and the planned US$10B autonomous-vehicle investment raises questions about near-term returns. Investor sentiment also remains cautious following reports regarding potential changes to Uber’s relationship with Waymo and increasing competition in robotaxis. Shares fell approximately 6% following the earnings release. The principal variables to monitor are autonomous-vehicle commercialization, Delivery margin expansion, Mobility pricing, Gross Bookings growth above 20%, and the pace at which AI and robotaxi investments translate into earnings. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $63 to $80. Positive Outlook. 

 

Uber Technologies, Inc.（UBER) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：141.9亿美元，同比增长11.7%，略低于预期7000万美元 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益：0.81美元，小幅超出预期0.01美元 

• 26财年第三季度指引：总预订额（Gross Bookings）；调整后EPS为0.84–0.88美元，略低于市场预期,战略投资：宣布计划未来数年投入超100亿美元，打造全球最大自动驾驶平台，目标2026年底前在15个城市运营 

• 短评：本季度基本面依然强劲，尽管营收小幅不及预期。总预订额同比增长24%，月活跃用户持续增长，配送业务收入大增28%，新用户增量创五年新高，显示Uber在出行与本地服务双赛道持续抢占市场份额，需求韧性突出。然而，增长动能略有放缓（营收增速从Q1的14%降至12%），叠加Q3盈利指引略逊预期，引发市场对“增长换挡”的担忧。更关键的是，100亿美元级自动驾驶投资计划虽具长期战略意义，但回报周期长、技术风险高，且正值与Waymo合作关系传闻生变之际，加剧投资者对资本配置效率的疑虑。财报后股价下跌约6%，反映市场在高估值背景下，对短期盈利质量与巨额AI/robotaxi投入的平衡更为敏感。后续关键变量包括：（1）自动驾驶商业化落地节奏与单位经济模型验证；（2）配送业务利润率能否在规模效应下持续扩张；（3）出行服务定价能力与司机供给稳定性；（4）总预订额能否维持20%+增长；（5）AI与robotaxi投资何时开始贡献可量化的成本节约或收入。Uber已成功转型为高利润、正自由现金流的平台型公司，核心业务具备强大网络效应。自动驾驶布局着眼长远，但需谨慎管理资本开支与市场预期。若执行得当，有望在未来十年重塑移动出行格局。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：63美元至80美元。积极前景。 

 

The Walt Disney Company (DIS) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: $25.25B, +6.8% YoY, miss estimates by $160M 

• 3Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.06, beat estimates by $0.21 

• FY26 Guidance: Disney reaffirmed its expectation for double-digit adjusted EPS growth in both FY26 and FY27. Management also announced plans to repurchase US$9B of shares during FY26, supported in part by proceeds from the sale of its 50% stake in A&E Global Media. 

• Dividends/Share Buybacks: Disney continues its quarterly dividend and increased its FY26 share repurchase target to US$9B. 

• Comment: This was a strong quarter. Experiences revenue increased 10%, with operating income rising 20%, driven by higher domestic park attendance, cruise demand and the global success of *Toy Story 5*. Entertainment operating income jumped 64% as Disney+ profitability continued to improve and blockbuster theatrical releases boosted merchandise and licensing revenue. Streaming revenue increased 11%, while subscriber engagement remained healthy. The main weakness remains ESPN. Sports operating income declined about 17% because of higher programming costs, including NBA rights, and softer carriage economics. Revenue also came in marginally below expectations despite the EPS beat. Management’s strategy now focuses on expanding Disney+ through ad-supported channels, deeper Hulu integration and a new TikTok partnership to improve content discovery and monetisation. Shares rose approximately 4% following the results as investors focused on stronger-than-expected earnings, accelerating streaming profitability and continued strength in the Experiences business. The principal variables to monitor are Disney+ subscriber monetisation, ESPN profitability, theme park attendance, AI-driven content initiatives and execution under CEO Josh D’Amaro. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $92 to $110. Neutral Outlook. 

 

The Walt Disney Company（DIS) 

• 26财年第三季度营收：252.5亿美元，同比增长6.8%，略低于预期1.6亿美元 

• 26财年第三季度非公认会计准则每股收益：2.06美元，显著超出预期0.21美元 

• 26财年全年指引：重申26及27财年调整后EPS实现双位数增长；将26财年股票回购目标上调至90亿美元（部分资金来自出售A&E Global Media 50%股权所得） 

• 股息与回购：维持季度股息，并提高全年回购规模 

• 短评：本季度表现强劲，盈利质量优异。尽管营收小幅不及预期，但核心业务全面超预期：Experiences（乐园、邮轮等）；Entertainment（影视、流媒体、消费品）；Disney+流媒体收入增长11%，盈利能力持续改善，用户参与度健康。亮点包括：《玩具总动员5》全球热映带动票房、商品及授权收入，国内乐园客流与邮轮需求旺盛，以及Hulu与Disney+整合深化推动广告变现效率提升。公司还宣布与TikTok合作，强化内容分发与年轻用户触达。主要拖累来自ESPN：受NBA转播权成本上升及传统有线电视“载波费”（carriage fees）下滑影响，体育板块营业利润同比下降17%，凸显传统电视业务结构性压力。财报后股价上涨约4%，反映市场更关注流媒体盈利拐点、乐园高利润率及90亿美元回购支撑，而非短期营收微幅缺口。后续关键变量包括：（1）Disney+广告套餐用户转化与ARPU提升；（2）ESPN转型进展（如独立App订阅增长、成本控制）；（3）主题公园定价能力与国际扩张（如巴黎、上海）；（4）AI在内容创作与推荐系统中的应用成效；（5）CEO Josh D’Amaro领导下各业务协同执行效率。迪士尼正成功从“疫情修复”迈向“结构性盈利提升”，流媒体减亏、乐园高回报、资本返还增强，构成稳健投资逻辑。但ESPN挑战与宏观消费波动仍构成短期扰动。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：92美元至110美元。中性前景。 

 

Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $701.32M, +6.6% YoY, miss estimates by $12M 

• 2Q26 GAAP EPS: $0.18, beat estimates by $0.02  

• 3Q26 Guidance: Management highlighted USDC in circulation of US$73.3B (+19% YoY), USDC on-chain transaction volume of US$14.8T (+151% YoY) and continued investment in payments infrastructure and stablecoin adoption. 

• Comment: This was a mixed quarter. Revenue growth slowed to 7% and missed expectations, reflecting lower reserve income as interest rates eased. However, the quality of the business improved, with revenue less distribution costs growing 15%, RLDC margin expanding by more than 300 bps, and USDC network activity remaining exceptionally strong. USDC circulation reached a record US$73.3B while transaction volume more than doubled, indicating continued adoption despite a softer rate environment. The key issue is monetization. Circle’s core stablecoin ecosystem continues to expand rapidly, but lower short-term interest rates are reducing reserve income growth, making investors increasingly focused on payments, software and infrastructure revenue. The shares traded lower after results as investors reacted to the revenue miss despite the EPS beat and healthy operating metrics. The principal variables to monitor are USDC circulation growth, reserve-income sensitivity to interest rates, expansion of Circle Payments Network and enterprise adoption, and the pace at which non-reserve revenue becomes a larger contributor. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $50 to $70. Neutral Outlook. 

 

Circle Internet Group, Inc.（CRCL) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：7.013亿美元，同比增长6.6%，略低于预期1200万美元 

• 26财年第二季度公认会计准则每股收益：0.18美元，小幅超出预期0.02美元 

• 26财年第三季度业务亮点：USDC流通量达733亿美元（+19% YoY）；链上交易额达14.8万亿美元（+151% YoY）；持续投资支付基础设施与稳定币生态拓展 

• 短评：本季度表现混合，呈现“增长放缓但质量提升”的分化格局。营收增速降至7%并小幅不及预期，主因短期利率回落导致储备资产利息收入减少。然而，核心运营指标显著改善：剔除分销成本后的营收增长15%，RLDC（Revenue Less Distribution Costs），显示商业模式正从“依赖利率”向“可持续服务变现”演进。USDC生态扩张势头强劲——流通量创历史新高，链上交易额翻倍以上，印证其作为主流稳定币的网络效应持续增强，应用场景已覆盖DeFi、跨境支付、机构结算等多个领域。但市场焦点集中在变现瓶颈：随着美联储进入降息周期，储备收入增长将承压，投资者愈发关注Circle能否加速发展支付网络、API服务及企业级解决方案等非利息收入来源。财报后股价下跌，反映市场对“营收 miss + 利率敏感性”的担忧，尽管盈利和生态指标健康。后续关键变量包括：（1）USDC流通量与交易活跃度能否维持高增长；（2）美联储利率路径对储备收入的影响；（3）Circle Payments Network在跨境与B2B场景的落地进展；（4）大型金融机构与科技公司对USDC的采用深度；（5）非储备类收入占比是否显著提升。Circle作为全球领先的合规稳定币发行商，占据Web3金融基础设施核心位置。长期前景广阔，但短期盈利受宏观利率制约，需通过产品多元化降低周期性风险。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：50美元至70美元。中性前景 
   

Novo Nordisk A/S. (NVO) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $12.11B, +0.86% YoY, beat estimates by $1.09B 

• 2Q26 non-GAAP EPS: $0.95, beat estimates by $0.18 

• FY26 Guidance: Expect revenue to come in between $85B and $87B, up from a previous guidance of between $82B and $85B. 

• Comment: Novo Nordisk reported a mixed quarter as adjusted sales and operating profit exceeded expectations and management raised full-year guidance, but investor sentiment was weighed down by Wegovy pill sales that met rather than exceeded expectations and further disappointing clinical data for next-generation obesity candidate CagriSema relative to Eli Lilly’s Zepbound. Oral Wegovy generated DKK3.2bn in sales, with strong prescription growth and approximately 90% share of the oral obesity market, although lower pricing offset robust volume gains. Management noted that more than 80% of oral Wegovy users were new to GLP-1 therapy, highlighting its ability to expand the obesity market rather than simply cannibalize injectable demand. While adjusted sales rose 7% and operating profit increased 11% in the quarter, Novo continues to face intense competitive pressure from Eli Lilly, pricing headwinds in the U.S., and investor concerns over the strength of its late-stage obesity pipeline. Novo Nordisk remains well positioned to benefit from the long-term structural growth of the global obesity market, supported by continued expansion of its Wegovy franchise, upcoming launches in new markets such as Germany, and growing adoption of oral GLP-1 therapies that could significantly broaden patient access. Management expects profitability to improve as patients transition to higher-dose oral Wegovy and manufacturing efficiencies increase, while the company continues to pursue targeted acquisitions to strengthen its pipeline. However, sustaining long-term growth will depend on successfully defending market share against Eli Lilly, improving pricing dynamics, and delivering more competitive next-generation obesity treatments as the GLP-1 market continues to evolve. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $40 to $50. Neutral Outlook. 

 

诺和诺德（NVO) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：121.1亿美元，同比增长0.86%，超出预期10.9亿美元 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益：0.95美元，超出预期0.18美元 

• 26财年全年指引：预计营收在850亿至870亿美元之间，高于此前820亿至850亿美元的指引。 

• 短评：诺和诺德本季度业绩表现不一，尽管调整后销售额和营业利润超出预期且管理层上调了全年指引，但Wegovy口服药销售额仅达到而非超出预期，且下一代肥胖候选药物CagriSema的临床数据相较于礼来的Zepbound进一步令人失望，拖累了投资者情绪。口服Wegovy实现32亿丹麦克朗的销售额，处方量强劲增长并占据约90%的口服肥胖药市场份额，但较低的定价抵消了销量的强劲增长。管理层指出，超过80%的口服Wegovy用户是首次接触GLP-1疗法，凸显了其扩大肥胖药市场而非单纯蚕食注射剂需求的能力。虽然本季度调整后销售额增长7%，营业利润增长11%，但诺和诺德继续面临来自礼来的激烈竞争压力、美国市场的定价逆风，以及投资者对其后期肥胖药研发管线实力的担忧。诺和诺德仍处于有利地位，有望受益于全球肥胖市场的长期结构性增长，这得益于Wegovy产品组合的持续扩张、在德国等新市场的即将上市，以及口服GLP-1疗法采用率的不断提高，这将显著扩大患者覆盖面。管理层预计，随着患者转向更高剂量的口服Wegovy以及制造效率的提升，盈利能力将有所改善，同时公司将继续进行有针对性的收购以强化其研发管线。然而，维持长期增长将取决于能否成功抵御礼来的市场份额争夺、改善定价动态，以及在GLP-1市场不断发展的过程中推出更具竞争力的下一代肥胖治疗方案。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：40美元至50美元。中性前景。 

 

SanDisk Corp. (SNDK) 

• 4Q26 Revenue: $8.97B, beat estimates by $580M 

• 4Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $39.25, beat estimates by $4.73 

• 1Q27 Guidance: Expect revenue between $10.30B and $10.80B, the midpoint of which is above analysts’ average estimate of $10.47B and quarterly adjusted profit is expected to be between $44 and $46 per share, above estimates of $43.12. 

• Dividends/Share Buybacks: The board approved an additional US$14B share repurchase programme, bringing its total remaining buyback authorisation to US$15.5B. 

• Comment: Sandisk delivered another strong quarter as accelerating AI infrastructure investment drove robust demand for enterprise SSDs and flash memory, with fourth-quarter revenue rising to US$8.97bn and adjusted EPS of US$39.25, both comfortably exceeding expectations. Data center revenue more than doubled sequentially to US$2.98bn, reflecting growing storage requirements from AI workloads. Management also guided first-quarter revenue of US$10.3-10.8bn and adjusted EPS of US$44-46, both above consensus, while highlighting a strategic shift toward long-term customer agreements. The company now has eight multi-year supply agreements with six customers worth at least US$93.9bn, with half of fiscal 2027 production and two-thirds of fiscal 2028 production already committed under these contracts. Additionally, Sandisk expanded its capital return program with a new US$14bn share repurchase authorization, bringing total remaining buyback capacity to US$15.5bn. Sandisk is well positioned to benefit from the structural growth in AI-driven storage demand as hyperscalers continue expanding data center capacity and enterprise SSD adoption accelerates. Its transition toward multi-year supply agreements significantly improves revenue visibility, production planning and pricing stability, while growing long-term commitments from major customers reduce earnings volatility. As AI workloads require increasingly higher-capacity, high-performance flash storage, Sandisk’s expanding contracted backlog and strengthening enterprise storage portfolio should support sustained growth, although execution on capacity expansion, memory pricing cycles and competitive dynamics remain key factors to watch. 1Q27 recommended trading range: $1,100 to $1,300. Neutral Outlook. 

 

闪迪（SNDK) 

• 26财年第四季度营收：89.7亿美元，超出预期5.8亿美元 

• 26财年第四季度非公认会计准则每股收益：39.25美元，超出预期4.73美元 

• 27财年第一季度指引：预计营收在103.0亿至108.0亿美元之间，中值高于分析师平均预期的104.7亿美元；季度调整后每股收益预计在44至46美元之间，高于预期的43.12美元。 

• 股息/股票回购：董事会批准了额外的140亿美元股票回购计划，使其剩余回购授权总额达到155亿美元。 

• 短评：闪迪再创强劲季度表现，加速的AI基础设施投资推动了对企业级SSD和闪存的强劲需求，第四季度营收增至89.7亿美元，调整后每股收益达39.25美元，均轻松超出预期。数据中心营收环比翻番至29.8亿美元，反映出AI工作负载带来的存储需求增长。管理层给出的第一季度营收指引为103亿至108亿美元，调整后每股收益为44至46美元，均高于市场共识，并强调了向长期客户协议的战略转变。公司目前与6家客户签订了8项多年期供应协议，总价值至少达939亿美元，2027财年一半的产能和2028财年三分之二的产能已在这些合同下获得承诺。此外，闪迪通过新增140亿美元的股票回购授权扩大了资本回报计划，使剩余回购能力总额达到155亿美元。随着超大规模云客户继续扩大数据中心容量以及企业级SSD采用率的加速，闪迪处于有利地位，有望受益于AI驱动的存储需求的结构性增长。其向多年期供应协议的转变显著提高了营收可见度、生产规划和定价稳定性，而主要客户不断增加的长期承诺降低了盈利波动性。随着AI工作负载需要容量更大、性能更高的闪存存储，闪迪不断扩大的合同积压订单和不断增强的企业存储产品组合应能支持其持续增长，尽管产能扩张的执行情况、内存定价周期和竞争态势仍是需要关注的关键因素。27财年第一季度建议交易区间：1100美元至1300美元。中性前景。 

 

Western Digital Corp. (WDC) 

• 4Q26 Revenue: $3.75B, +43.7% YoY, beat estimates by $50M 

• 4Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $3.56, beat estimates by $0.26 

• 1Q27 Guidance: Expect earnings per share between $3.85 and $4.15, compared to analyst consensus of $3.77. The company expects revenue in the range of $4B to $4.2B, versus consensus of $4.04B. 

• Comment: Western Digital delivered a strong finish to fiscal 2026, with fourth-quarter revenue rising 44% YoY to US$3.75bn and adjusted EPS more than doubling to US$3.56, both exceeding market expectations on the back of robust global storage demand, expanding margins and disciplined execution across its end markets. Management also guided fiscal first-quarter 2027 revenue of US$4.0-4.2bn and EPS of US$3.85-4.15, both above consensus, while forecasting gross margins of 55%-56%. Despite the earnings beat and optimistic guidance, shares fell sharply as investors had already priced in an exceptional outlook following the stock’s strong rally, with guidance implying a moderation in the pace of sequential growth rather than the stronger acceleration the market had anticipated. Western Digital remains well positioned to benefit from the structural increase in data storage demand driven by AI infrastructure, hyperscale cloud deployments and enterprise digitalization, with management highlighting broadening customer engagement and continued operational discipline. Improving profitability, expanding gross margins and above-consensus guidance suggest demand remains healthy, while the company’s HDD portfolio should continue to benefit from growing AI-related storage requirements. However, after a strong share price re-rating, future performance is likely to depend on Western Digital sustaining margin expansion and delivering continued growth amid evolving storage technologies and intensifying industry competition. 1Q27 recommended trading range: $400 to $480. Neutral Outlook. 

 

西部数据（WDC) 

• 26财年第四季度营收：37.5亿美元，同比增长43.7%，超出预期5000万美元 

• 26财年第四季度非公认会计准则每股收益：3.56美元，超出预期0.26美元 

• 27财年第一季度指引：预计每股收益在3.85美元至4.15美元之间，分析师共识为3.77美元。公司预计营收在40亿至42亿美元之间，共识为40.4亿美元。 

• 短评：西部数据为2026财年画上了强劲的句号，第四季度营收同比增长44%至37.5亿美元，调整后每股收益翻番至3.56美元，在强劲的全球化存储需求、利润率扩大以及各终端市场严谨执行的推动下，双双超出市场预期。管理层给出的2027财年第一季度营收指引为40亿至42亿美元，每股收益为3.85至4.15美元，均高于市场共识，并预测毛利率为55%至56%。尽管盈利超出预期且指引乐观，但股价却大幅下跌，因为投资者在股价强劲反弹后已计入了极其乐观的预期，而该指引暗示环比增速将放缓，而非市场预期的更强劲加速。西部数据仍处于有利地位，有望受益于AI基础设施、超大规模云部署和企业数字化推动的数据存储需求结构性增长，管理层强调了客户参与度的扩大和持续的运营纪律。盈利能力的改善、毛利率的扩大以及高于共识的指引表明需求依然健康，其HDD产品组合应继续受益于不断增长的AI相关存储需求。然而，在股价经历强劲重估后，未来的表现可能取决于西部数据能否在不断发展的存储技术和日益激烈的行业竞争中维持利润率扩张并实现持续增长。27财年第一季度建议交易区间：400美元至480美元。中性前景。 

 

Applovin Corp. (APP) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $1.92B, +52.4% YoY, miss estimates by $20M 

• 2Q26 GAAP EPS: $3.77, beat estimates by $0.02 

• 3Q26 Guidance: Expect revenue of $2.055B to $2.085B, implying growth of 46% to 48% from a year earlier and 7% to 8% sequentially. The company also forecast adjusted EBITDA of $1.71B to $1.74B, with margins around 83%. 

• Comment: AppLovin delivered another strong quarter with revenue growing 53% YoY to US$1.92bn and adjusted EBITDA rising 58% to US$1.61bn, although results came in slightly below its own guidance due to slower-than-usual improvements in its advertising models during the quarter rather than weakening advertiser demand. Management emphasized that gaming demand remained healthy, publisher performance stayed strong and market share was stable, with the latest model enhancements already deployed after quarter-end driving a reacceleration in Q3. Meanwhile, the consumer advertising business continued to scale rapidly, with advertiser spend reaching a record level 28% above the previous seasonal peak, highlighting a significant new growth runway beyond gaming. The company also continued investing in more advanced AI models, compute infrastructure, creative tools and strategic partnerships, while guiding for Q3 revenue of US$2.06–2.09 billion and adjusted EBITDA of US$1.71-1.74bn, reflecting renewed momentum and continued margin strength above 80%. AppLovin remains well positioned to deliver sustained long-term growth as continued AI-driven improvements in its advertising models increase advertiser returns and support higher spending across both gaming and consumer verticals. The rapid expansion of its consumer advertising business, public rollout of AppLovin Ads Manager, ongoing investments in model architecture and compute, and growing advertiser partnerships significantly expand its addressable market beyond gaming. With healthy advertiser demand, strong cash generation and management targeting approximately 30% long-term annual compounding, AppLovin appears well placed to benefit from the increasing adoption of AI-powered digital advertising, although the pace of model improvements and execution on scaling newer advertising categories will remain key drivers of future performance. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $340 to $400. Neutral Outlook. 

 

AppLovin（APP) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：19.2亿美元，同比增长52.4%，低于预期2000万美元 

• 26财年第二季度公认会计准则每股收益：3.77美元，超出预期0.02美元 

• 26财年第三季度指引：预计营收在20.55亿至20.85亿美元之间，意味着同比增长46%至48%，环比增长7%至8%。公司还预测调整后EBITDA在17.1亿至17.4亿美元之间，利润率约为83%。 

• 短评：AppLovin再创强劲季度表现，营收同比增长53%至19.2亿美元，调整后EBITDA增长58%至16.1亿美元，尽管由于本季度广告模型改善速度慢于往常而非广告主需求疲软，业绩略低于公司自身指引。管理层强调，游戏需求保持健康，发行商业绩依然强劲，市场份额保持稳定，季度末后部署的最新模型增强功能正推动第三季度重新加速增长。与此同时，消费者广告业务继续快速扩张，广告主支出达到创纪录水平，比之前的季节性峰值高出28%，凸显了游戏之外重要的新增长跑道。公司还继续投资于更先进的AI模型、计算基础设施、创意工具和战略合作伙伴关系，同时给出的第三季度营收指引为20.6亿至20.9亿美元，调整后EBITDA为17.1亿至17.4亿美元，反映出复苏的增长动能和持续保持在80%以上的利润率优势。随着AI驱动的广告模型不断改进从而提高广告主回报并支持游戏和消费者垂直领域的更高支出，AppLovin仍处于有利地位，有望实现持续的长期增长。消费者广告业务的快速扩张、AppLovin Ads Manager的公开发布、对模型架构和计算的持续投资，以及不断增长的广告主合作伙伴关系，显著扩大了其在游戏之外的潜在市场。凭借健康的广告主需求、强劲的现金流以及管理层设定约30%的长期年复合增长率目标，AppLovin似乎已做好充分准备，有望受益于AI驱动的数字广告日益普及，尽管模型改进的步伐和扩大较新广告类别的执行力仍将是未来表现的关键驱动因素。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：340美元至400美元。中性前景。 

 

TTM Technologies Inc. (TTMI) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $1B, +36.9% YoY, beat estimates by $34.95M 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.99, beat estimates by $0.09 

• 3Q26 Guidance: Expect revenue of $1.10B to $1.14B and non-GAAP EPS of $1.21 to $1.27. 

• FY26 Guidance: Expect revenue of about $4.4B, up from prior guidance of at least $4B and non-GAAP EPS approaching $5 a share. 

• Comment: Booking Holdings delivered a strong second quarter, with adjusted EPS of US$2.54 beating expectations, supported by resilient U.S. domestic and regional travel demand despite ongoing geopolitical disruptions. However, the company lowered its full-year gross bookings growth outlook to the high single digits from its previous expectation of high single digits to low double digits, reflecting weaker long-haul international travel as elevated airfares, reduced airline capacity and the prolonged Middle East conflict weighed on global travel demand. Management expects inbound travel to the Middle East and broader flight network disruptions to persist through the third quarter. Encouragingly, the company’s investments in AI are already generating tangible benefits, with customer service costs per booking declining at a double-digit rate while maintaining high customer satisfaction, highlighting improving operating efficiency. Booking Holdings remains well-positioned to benefit from resilient leisure travel demand, particularly in domestic and regional markets, while continued investment in AI should enhance customer experience, improve operating efficiency and support long-term profitability. Although geopolitical tensions and airline capacity constraints are expected to continue weighing on international travel in the near term, management believes its technology investments and diversified global platform position the company to capture demand as travel conditions normalise. Looking ahead, the pace of recovery in long-haul travel, adoption of AI-powered booking capabilities and competitive dynamics from emerging AI travel agents will be key factors influencing future growth. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $120 to $140. Neutral Outlook. 

 

TTM科技（TTMI) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：10亿美元，同比增长36.9%，超出预期3495万美元 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益：0.99美元，超出预期0.09美元 

• 26财年第三季度指引：预计营收在11.0亿至11.4亿美元之间，非公认会计准则每股收益在1.21至1.27美元之间。 

• 26财年全年指引：预计营收约为44亿美元，高于此前至少40亿美元的指引，非公认会计准则每股收益接近5美元。 

• 短评：Booking Holdings第二季度业绩强劲，调整后每股收益2.54美元超出预期，尽管地缘政治局势持续动荡，但美国国内和区域旅游需求依然保持韧性。然而，公司将全年总预订量增长预期从此前的高个位数至低双位数下调至高个位数，反映出由于机票价格居高不下、航空公司运力减少以及中东冲突旷日持久对全球旅游需求造成压力，导致长途国际旅行疲软。管理层预计，前往中东的入境旅行和更广泛的航班网络中断情况将持续到第三季度。令人鼓舞的是，公司在AI领域的投资已开始产生切实效益，每次预订的客户服务成本以双位数的比率下降，同时保持了较高的客户满意度，凸显了运营效率的提升。Booking Holdings仍处于有利地位，有望受益于具有韧性的休闲旅游需求，尤其是在国内和区域市场，而对AI的持续投资应能提升客户体验、提高运营效率并支持长期盈利能力。尽管地缘政治紧张局势和航空运力限制预计将在短期内继续对国际旅行造成压力，但管理层认为，其技术投资和多元化的全球平台使公司能够在旅行条件正常化时把握需求。展望未来，长途旅行的复苏步伐、AI驱动预订功能的采用以及新兴AI旅行代理带来的竞争态势，将是影响未来增长的关键因素。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：120美元至140美元。中性前景。 

 

Axon Enterprise Inc. (AXON) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $904.3M, +35.3% YoY, beat estimates by $27.84M 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.88, beat estimates by $0.04 

• FY26 Guidance: Raises full-year revenue growth outlook to 32% to 34%; maintains Adjusted EBITDA margin outlook at 25.5%. 

• Comment: Axon delivered another record quarter, with revenue rising 35% YoY to US$904mn, marking its 10th consecutive quarter of revenue growth above 30%, driven by strong demand across both its Connected Devices and Software & Services segments. Growth was supported by continued adoption of TASER 10, Axon Body 4, Dedrone and premium software offerings, including the AI Era Plan, while future contracted bookings increased 41% YoY to a record US$15.1bn following several landmark customer wins, including two nine-figure U.S. public safety contracts. Although overall gross margin declined slightly to 62.9% due to a higher mix of lower-margin professional services supporting software deployments, software-only gross margins remained above 80%, highlighting the strength of Axon’s high-margin recurring software business. Reflecting continued execution and strong demand, management raised its full-year 2026 revenue growth guidance to 32%-34% from 30%-32%, while maintaining its adjusted EBITDA margin target of approximately 25.5%. Axon remains well positioned to sustain strong long-term growth as law enforcement agencies increasingly adopt its integrated public safety ecosystem spanning TASER devices, body cameras, drones, AI-powered software and real-time operations platforms. Its record US$15.1bn contracted bookings backlog, expanding international and enterprise opportunities, and growing adoption of premium software solutions provide strong revenue visibility, while continued investments in new products and AI capabilities are expected to strengthen customer retention and increase recurring software revenue. Although near-term margins may remain pressured by implementation services and product investments, Axon’s expanding ecosystem and growing software penetration should support durable growth and operating leverage over the longer term. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $550 to $650. Neutral Outlook. 

 

Axon Enterprise（AXON) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：9.043亿美元，同比增长35.3%，超出预期2784万美元 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益：1.88美元，超出预期0.04美元 

• 26财年全年指引：将全年营收增长预期上调至32%至34%；维持调整后EBITDA利润率预期为25.5%。 

• 短评：Axon再创季度新高，营收同比增长35%至9.04亿美元，标志着其连续第10个季度营收增长超过30%，这得益于其互联设备和软件与服务两大领域的强劲需求。TASER 10、Axon Body 4、Dedrone以及包括AI Era Plan在内的高级软件产品的持续采用推动了增长，而在赢得包括两项九位数美国公共安全合同在内的多个标志性客户订单后，未来合同预订量同比增长41%，达到创纪录的151亿美元。尽管由于支持软件部署的低利润率专业服务占比增加导致整体毛利率小幅下降至62.9%，但纯软件毛利率仍保持在80%以上，凸显了Axon高利润率经常性软件业务的实力。反映出持续的执行力和强劲的需求，管理层将其2026年全年营收增长指引从30%-32%上调至32%-34%，同时维持约25.5%的调整后EBITDA利润率目标。随着执法机构越来越多地采用其涵盖TASER设备、执法记录仪、无人机、AI驱动软件和实时运营平台的集成公共安全生态系统，Axon仍处于有利地位，有望维持强劲的长期增长。其创纪录的151亿美元合同预订积压订单、不断扩大的国际和企业机遇，以及高级软件解决方案采用率的提高，提供了强劲的营收可见度，而对新产品和AI能力的持续投资预计将加强客户留存并增加经常性软件收入。尽管短期内利润率可能因实施服务和产品投资而承受压力，但Axon不断扩张的生态系统和不断提高的软件渗透率应在长期内支持其可持续增长和运营杠杆。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：550美元至650美元。中性前景。