Technical Analysis – 24 June 2026

Carnival Corporation Ltd. (CCL) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $6.7B, +5.8% YoY, beat estimates by $10M 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.41, beat estimates by $0.07 

• FY26 Guidance: FY26 adjusted EPS was raised slightly to about $2.22, while adjusted EBITDA outlook was revised to about $7.11B and net yield growth outlook was reduced to about 1.75%. 

• Dividends/Share Buybacks: Carnival continues to have a $2.5B share buyback authorization in place. 

• Comment: This was a mixed quarter. The company delivered record second-quarter revenue, record net yields, and an EPS beat, which confirms that underlying demand and onboard spending remain healthy. Bookings for the rest of 2026 were described as strong, with occupancy around 93% for the balance of the year. The main issue is fuel and near-term booking disruption. Higher fuel costs and geopolitical tension, particularly around Mediterranean itineraries, pressured the summer outlook enough to leave 3Q guidance below expectations. The stock reaction was negative, with shares down about 5% to 7% after results, which indicates the market cared more about the softer forward profit signal than the quarter’s beat. The principal variables to monitor are fuel-price normalization, whether Mediterranean demand stabilizes, and whether strong 2027 booking trends are enough to offset the weaker 3Q setup. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $23 to $35. Neutral Outlook. 

Carnival Corporation Ltd.（CCL) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：67亿美元，同比增长5.8%，超出预期1000万美元 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益：0.41美元，超出预期0.07美元 

• 26财年全年指引：小幅上调调整后EPS至约2.22美元；调整后EBITDA展望上调至约71.1亿美元；但净收益率（net yield） 

• 股息与回购：公司仍持有25亿美元股票回购授权 

• 短评：本季度表现混合，基本面稳健但前景承压。公司创下二季度历史最高营收与净收益率，反映邮轮需求强劲、船上消费活跃；2026年剩余航次预订情况良好，全年平均入住率预计达93%，显示核心业务韧性十足。然而，前瞻性利润指引偏弱：受高企的燃油成本及地中海航线地缘政治紧张（如红海、中东局势）影响，第三季度调整后EBITDA与盈利预期低于市场共识，导致股价盘后下跌5%–7%。市场显然更关注“未来一个季度的利润压力”，而非当季超预期表现。后续关键变量包括：（1）全球燃油价格是否出现趋势性回落；（2）地中海等关键航线的地缘风险是否缓和，带动需求与定价恢复；（3）尽管3Q承压，但2027年预订势头强劲（管理层此前披露预订量同比大增），能否支撑估值在短期波动后重获支撑。Carnival当前处于“强需求+短期扰动”并存阶段，若成本与航线风险可控，全年盈利上调仍具基础。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：23美元至35美元。中性前景。 
   

FedEx Corporation (FDX) 

• 4Q26 Revenue: $25B, +12.6% YoY, beat estimates by $970M 

• 4Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $6.31, beat estimates by $0.36 

• FY27 Guidance: FedEx expects revenue growth of about 11% and adjusted EPS of $16.90 to $18.10. The company also said it is aligning reporting to the calendar year after the June 1 spin-off of FedEx Freight. 

• Dividends/Share Buybacks: FedEx plans up to $1B of share repurchases in 2026. 

• Comment: This was a good quarter on the headline numbers. Revenue and adjusted EPS both beat, helped by stronger domestic demand, higher package yields, and better volume in premium business-to-business categories such as healthcare, automotive, aerospace, and data centers. The main issue was margin quality. Operating margin in the core delivery business fell to 7.7% from 8.4% because of higher salaries, outsourced transportation, and fuel costs. That was enough to outweigh the beat, especially as investors are now evaluating the post-FedEx Freight business on its standalone margin profile. The stock fell about 6% after the release, which suggests the market focused more on the lower-margin mix and the forward earnings range than on the quarterly beat itself. The principal variables to monitor are margin recovery after the freight spin-off, growth in higher-value delivery categories, cost normalization in compensation and transportation, and whether the streamlined parcel business can deliver cleaner earnings progression through calendar 2026. 4Q26 recommended trading range: $250 to $330. Neutral Outlook. 

FedEx Corporation（FDX) 

• 26财年第四季度营收：250亿美元，同比增长12.6%，大幅超出预期9.7亿美元 

• 26财年第四季度非公认会计准则每股收益：6.31美元，超出预期0.36美元 

• 27财年全年指引：预计营收增长约11%，调整后EPS为16.90–18.10美元；公司将于2026年6月1日剥离FedEx Freight，并转向日历年财报披露 

• 股息与回购：计划在2026年进行最高10亿美元的股票回购 

• 短评：本季度顶层数据表现良好。营收与盈利双双超预期，受益于美国本土需求稳健、包裹单价提升，以及医疗、汽车、航空航天和数据中心等高价值B2B货运品类量增，显示其服务组合正向更高利润领域倾斜。然而，核心快递业务运营利润率从8.4%下滑至7.7%，主因薪资上涨、外包运输成本增加及燃油支出上升，引发市场对“增长质量”的担忧。尽管业绩超预期，股价盘后下跌约6%，反映投资者更关注剥离Freight后的独立快递业务利润率前景。在新架构下，市场将更严格审视FedEx Express与Ground的盈利能力，而非整体规模。当前指引中EPS区间较宽（16.90–18.10美元），也暗示执行不确定性仍存。后续关键变量包括：（1）Freight剥离后，剩余业务的运营杠杆能否改善；（2）高附加值货运品类是否持续驱动收入结构优化；（3）人力与运输成本是否在2026年下半年趋稳；（4）简化后的包裹业务能否实现更清晰、可预测的盈利路径。若成本压力缓和且高价值需求延续，FedEx有望重获估值支撑。26财年第四季度建议交易区间：250美元至330美元。中性前景。 

Cerebras Systems Inc. (CBRS) 

• 1Q26 Revenue: $193.41M, +94.4% YoY, beat estimates by $12.57M 

• 1Q26 GAAP EPS: –$0.22, beat estimates by $0.07 

• 2Q26 Guidance: 2Q26 revenue guided to about $194M, above expectations.  

• FY26 Guidance: Full-year adjusted gross margin is expected at 38% to 41%, below 1Q26’s 47%, and full-year core operating margin is expected at negative 28% to negative 32%. 

• Comment: This was a strong first public-quarter revenue print. Revenue nearly doubled year over year, Q2 guidance came in above expectations, and the company continues to benefit from very large AI inference demand, including its disclosed OpenAI-linked deployment pipeline and broader hyperscaler exposure. The main issue is margin quality. Management guided full-year gross margin materially lower than the 1Q level because of the cost of ramping capacity and temporary compute rentals to meet demand. That was enough to push the stock lower after results, with shares falling around 10% to 11% after hours despite the revenue beat. The principal variables to monitor are margin recovery as owned capacity scales, conversion of large customer demand into profitable recurring revenue, customer concentration risk, and whether the company can move toward its longer-term margin target while maintaining its current growth pace. 2Q26 recommended trading range: $150 to $350. Neutral Outlook. 

Cerebras Systems Inc.（CBRS) 

• 26财年第一季度营收：1.9341亿美元，同比增长94.4%，超出预期1257万美元 

• 26财年第一季度公认会计准则每股亏损：0.22美元，优于预期0.07美元（亏损收窄） 

• 26财年第二季度指引：营收约1.94亿美元，高于市场预期 

• 26财年全年指引：调整后毛利率预计为38%–41%（显著低于Q1的47%）；核心运营利润率预计为-28%至-32% 

• 短评：作为上市后的首份完整财报，本季度表现强劲。营收同比近乎翻倍，Q2指引超预期，印证公司正深度受益于大规模AI推理需求爆发，包括已披露的与OpenAI相关的部署管线及更广泛的超大规模客户（hyperscaler）合作。然而，市场焦点迅速转向盈利能力：管理层明确表示，全年毛利率将明显回落，主因在于产能快速爬坡带来的成本压力，以及为满足紧急客户需求而临时租赁算力所产生的额外支出。尽管收入增长亮眼，股价盘后仍下跌10%-11%，反映投资者对“高增长但低/负利润”模式的审慎态度——尤其在当前市场更关注AI硬件公司变现效率与资本纪律的背景下。后续关键变量包括：（1）自有晶圆级计算集群（CS-2系统）产能规模效应能否推动毛利率回升；（2）大客户订单能否从一次性部署转化为高毛利、经常性服务收入；（3）对少数头部客户的依赖是否构成集中度风险；（4）公司能否在维持高速增长的同时，逐步向长期盈利目标靠拢。短期阵痛或难避免，但若执行顺利，Cerebras有望巩固其在专用AI芯片领域的稀缺地位。26财年第四季度建议交易区间：50美元至60美元。中性前景。