Technical Analysis – 6 May 2026

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

General Dynamics Corporation (GD US)

• Shares closed above the 5dEMA. 
• RSI is constructive and MACD is about to turn positive. 
• Long – Entry 340, Target 370, Stop 325 

Universal Safety Products, Inc (UUU US) 

• Shares closed above the 5dEMA.  
• Both RSI and MACD are constructive. 
• Long – Entry 6, Target 8, Stop 5 

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Aoxin Q&M Dental Group Ltd. (AOXIN SP) 

• Shares closed above the 5dEMA with rising volume. 
• Both RSI and MACD are constructive. 
• Buy – Entry 0.20, Target 0.28, Stop 0.16  

Trendlines Group Ltd. (TTGL SP) 

• Shares closed above the 5dEMA with rising volume. 
• Both RSI and MACD are constructive. 
• Buy – Entry 0.06, Target 0.08, Stop 0.05 

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KE Holdings, Inc. (2423 HK)

• Shares closed at a two-months high above the 100dEMA. 
• Both RSI and MACD are constructive. 
• Long – Entry 46, Target 50, Stop 44

China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd (688 HK) 

• Shares closed at a two-months high above the 5dEMA.  
• MACD is constructive, while RSI is overbought. 
• Long – Entry 13.7, Target 14.8, Stop 13.2 

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Shopify Inc. (SHOP) 

• 1Q26 Revenue: $3.17B, +34.3% YoY, beat estimates by $80M 

• 1Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.36, beat estimates by $0.03 

• 2Q26 Guidance: 2Q26 revenue is expected to grow at a high-20s % rate YoY. Shopify guided gross profit dollars to grow at a mid-20s % rate, operating expenses at 35% to 36% of revenue, and free cash flow margin to remain in the mid-teens. 

• Comment: The quarter was strong on the core operating metrics. Revenue rose 34% YoY to $3.17B and GMV increased to about $100.7B, indicating that merchant activity and payments penetration remain healthy. This supports the view that Shopify is still executing well across both subscription and merchant solutions. The issue was the outlook on profitability rather than demand. While 2Q26 revenue guidance was solid, investors focused on higher operating expense guidance and only steady free cash flow margin. There is also a continued mix shift toward lower-margin merchant solutions, which can pressure near-term operating leverage even when GMV and revenue remain strong. The market reaction was negative, with shares falling sharply after the release. The principal variables to monitor are merchant solutions mix, operating-expense discipline, gross profit growth relative to revenue growth, and whether AI-related product investment translates into stronger monetization rather than just higher cost. 2Q26 recommended trading range: $85 to $130. Neutral Outlook. 

Shopify Inc.（SHOP) 

• 26财年第一季度营收：31.7亿美元，同比增长34.3%，超出预期8000万美元 

• 26财年第一季度非公认会计准则每股收益：0.36美元，超出预期0.03美元 

• 26财年第二季度指引：营收预计同比增长高二十几%；毛利润美元增长中二十几%；运营支出占营收比例35%–36%；自由现金流利润率维持在中 teens（约13%–16%） 

• 短评：本季度核心运营指标表现强劲。营收同比增长34%至31.7亿美元，商品交易总额（GMV）达1007亿美元，显示商家活跃度与支付渗透率保持健康，印证Shopify在订阅服务与商家解决方案两大业务线均执行良好。然而，市场担忧焦点不在需求端，而在盈利路径的可见性：尽管Q2营收指引稳健，但投资者对更高的运营支出占比及自由现金流利润率仅持平感到失望。同时，收入结构持续向低毛利率的商家解决方案（如支付、物流）倾斜，即便GMV和顶层收入增长强劲，仍可能压制近端运营杠杆。财报发布后股价大幅下跌，反映市场对利润率承压与成本扩张的敏感。后续关键变量包括：（1）商家解决方案在收入中的占比演变；（2）运营支出纪律能否强化；（3）毛利润增速是否跟上营收扩张；（4）AI相关产品投入能否转化为更强变现能力，而非仅增加成本。26财年第二季度建议交易区间：85美元至130美元。中性前景。 
   

PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) 

• 1Q26 Revenue: $8.4B, +7% YoY, beat estimates by $340M 

• 1Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.34, beat estimates by $0.07 

• FY26 Guidance: Reaffirmed FY26 adjusted EPS guidance of $5.15 to $5.30. 

• Dividends/Share Buybacks: PayPal repurchased about $1.5B of stock in 1Q26 and continues to target roughly $6B of buybacks for FY26. 

• Comment: The quarter was better than the headline revenue growth suggests. Transaction margin dollars increased 7% to $3.7B, total payment volume rose 7% to $417.2B, and branded checkout accelerated to 6% growth, indicating the core checkout business is stabilizing while profitability improves. Venmo revenue also rose more than 20%, supported by debit card and instant transfer usage. The main issue is that top-line growth remains modest and the market is still debating durability. Unbranded processing growth slowed, active accounts were essentially flat, and management only reaffirmed rather than raised the full-year outlook. The stock fell about 4% after the release, which reflects investor concern that margin improvement is outpacing revenue acceleration rather than occurring alongside it. The principal variables to monitor are branded checkout growth, transaction margin dollar expansion, Venmo monetization, and whether product simplification and buybacks can support a sustained rerating without a clearer revenue reacceleration. 2Q26 recommended trading range: $35 to $60. Neutral Outlook. 

PayPal Holdings, Inc.（PYPL) 

• 26财年第一季度营收：84亿美元，同比增长7%，超出预期3.4亿美元 

• 26财年第一季度非公认会计准则每股收益：1.34美元，超出预期0.07美元 

• 26财年全年指引：重申调整后每股收益5.15–5.30美元 

• 股息与资本返还：第一季度回购约15亿美元股票，维持2026财年约60亿美元回购目标 

• 短评：本季度表现优于表面营收增速所暗示的水平。交易毛利（Transaction Margin Dollars）增长7%至37亿美元，总支付额（TPV）达4172亿美元（+7%），品牌结账（Branded Checkout）同比增长6%，显示核心结账业务正企稳，同时盈利能力持续改善。Venmo收入增长超20%，受益于借记卡及即时转账使用量提升。然而，顶层增长仍显温和，市场对可持续性存疑：非品牌处理（Unbranded Processing）增速放缓，活跃账户数基本持平，且管理层仅重申全年指引，未予上调。财报发布后股价下跌约4%，反映投资者担忧——利润率改善正快于营收加速，而非同步发生。后续关键变量包括：（1）品牌结账增长能否延续；（2）交易毛利美元是否持续扩张；（3）Venmo变现效率提升；（4）在缺乏明确营收再加速的情况下，产品简化与股票回购能否支撑估值持续重估。26财年第二季度建议交易区间：35美元至60美元。中性前景。 

KKR & Co. Inc. (KKR) 

• 1Q26 AUM: $758B, +14% YoY. 

• 1Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.39, beat estimates by $0.13 

• 2Q26 Guidance: No explicit guidance. 

• Comment: The quarter was strong on the core fee engine. Adjusted net income reached about $1.25B, management fees rose 30% to $1.2B, and fee-related earnings per share increased 23% to $1.13. AUM reached a record roughly $758B, while KKR raised $28B of new capital, including about $23B for North America Fund XIV. The main issue is not current execution, but forward visibility. Gross returns were modest, around 1% in private equity and negative in credit strategies, and management explicitly cautioned that volatility, geopolitical risk, and tighter credit conditions may make it harder to hit prior earnings ambitions. That is why the stock reaction softened after the initial beat. The principal variables to monitor are realization activity, fundraising durability, fee-related earnings growth, and whether volatility starts to delay exits or reduce deployment economics. 2Q26 recommended trading range: $85 to $130. Neutral Outlook. 

KKR & Co. Inc.（KKR) 

• 26财年第一季度管理资产规模（AUM）：7580亿美元，同比增长14% 

• 26财年第一季度非公认会计准则每股收益：1.39美元，超出预期0.13美元 

• 26财年第二季度指引：未提供明确财务指引 

• 短评：本季度在核心费用引擎方面表现强劲。调整后净利润约12.5亿美元，管理费收入大增30%至12亿美元，费用相关每股收益（FRE per share）增长23%至1.13美元。AUM达创纪录的约7580亿美元，季度内募资280亿美元，其中包括北美第十四期基金（North America Fund XIV）的约230亿美元，显示其募资能力依然领先同业。然而，当前挑战不在执行，而在前瞻性能见度：一季度私募股权综合回报率仅约1%，信贷策略更录得负回报；管理层明确警示，市场波动、地缘政治风险及信贷环境收紧可能使公司难以实现此前设定的盈利目标。正因如此，尽管业绩超预期，股价在盘初上涨后回吐涨幅。后续关键变量包括：（1）资产退出与兑现活动节奏；（2）募资势头能否持续；（3）费用相关收益的增长可持续性；（4）市场波动是否进一步延迟退出或削弱投资部署回报。26财年第二季度建议交易区间：85美元至130美元。中性前景。 

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) 

• 1Q26 Revenue: $10.25B, +37.8% YoY, beat estimates by 330M. 

• 1Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.37, beat estimates by $0.08 

• 2Q26 Guidance: 2Q26 revenue guided to about $11.2B, above expectations, with non-GAAP gross margin expected at about 56%.  

• Comment: This was a strong quarter, led by Data Center. Segment revenue rose 57% YoY to $5.8B, driven by EPYC server CPUs and continued Instinct GPU ramp, while Client and Gaming revenue also increased 23% to $3.6B. The result supports the view that AMD is gaining real traction across AI infrastructure rather than relying on one product cycle. The main positive is the guidance and the mix. Q2 revenue guidance of about $11.2B implies another step up, and management also pointed to stronger long-term server CPU market assumptions. At the same time, there are still areas to watch, including rising competition, supply-chain tightness in memory, and softer expectations for PCs and gaming in the second half. The stock reacted positively after the release, with reports indicating an after-hours gain of roughly 7% to 12%, which is consistent with a market that was looking for a clear AI-led beat and raise. The principal variables to monitor are Data Center growth durability, Instinct GPU scale-up, gross-margin progression as AI mix rises, and whether weaker consumer end markets begin to offset some of the server strength later in the year. 2Q26 recommended trading range: $380 to $500. Positive Outlook. 

超威半导体公司（AMD) 

• 26财年第一季度营收：102.5亿美元，同比增长37.8%，超出预期3.3亿美元 

• 26财年第一季度非公认会计准则每股收益：1.37美元，超出预期0.08美元 

• 26财年第二季度指引：营收约112亿美元（高于市场预期），非GAAP毛利率约56% 

• 短评：本季度表现强劲，数据中心业务为最大驱动力。该板块营收同比大增57%至58亿美元，受益于EPYC服务器CPU持续渗透及Instinct AI GPU加速上量；客户端与游戏业务亦增长23%至36亿美元。此结果印证AMD正在AI基础设施领域建立广泛且可持续的竞争力，而非依赖单一产品周期。核心亮点在于前瞻指引与产品组合优化：Q2营收指引112亿美元隐含环比进一步增长，管理层亦上调对长期服务器CPU市场份额的预期。尽管如此，仍需关注若干风险：竞争加剧、内存供应链趋紧，以及下半年PC与游戏终端需求可能转弱。财报发布后股价盘后大涨7%–12%，反映市场对“清晰的AI驱动超预期+上调指引”的积极认可。后续关键变量包括：（1）数据中心增长的持续性；（2）Instinct GPU产能与客户采纳速度；（3）随着AI产品占比提升，毛利率能否稳步改善；（4）消费类终端疲软是否在年内部分抵消服务器强势。26财年第二季度建议交易区间：380美元至500美元。积极前景。 

Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: $808.4M, +90.1% YoY, miss estimates by $1.65M. 

• 3Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.37, beat estimates by $0.10 

• 4Q26 Guidance: 4Q26 revenue guided to $960M to $1.01B and adjusted EPS to $2.85 to $3.05, both ahead of market expectations. Non-GAAP operating margin is guided to 35.0% to 36.0%.  

• Comment: This was a very strong quarter on profitability and AI-driven optical demand. Revenue nearly doubled YoY, non GAAP operating margin expanded to 32.2% from 10.8% a year earlier, and management pointed to continued strength in cloud and AI networking demand. The quarter also showed that pricing, mix, and execution are improving at the same time. The main debate is expectations rather than fundamentals. Revenue came in a touch light versus consensus, and the stock fell after hours despite the earnings beat and strong F4 guide. The company has also already rallied sharply in 2026, so the hurdle for further upside is higher. The principal variables to monitor are whether AI optical demand continues to outpace supply into 2027 to 2028, whether margin expansion remains this strong as volumes scale, and whether co-packaged optics and optical circuit switching become meaningful contributors. 4Q26 recommended trading range: $850 to $1300. Positive Outlook. 

Lumentum Holdings Inc.（LITE) 

• 26财年第三季度营收：8.084亿美元，同比增长90.1%，略低于预期165万美元 

• 26财年第三季度非公认会计准则每股收益：2.37美元，超出预期0.10美元 

• 26财年第四季度指引：营收9.6亿–10.1亿美元，调整后每股收益2.85–3.05美元，均高于市场预期；非GAAP营业利润率指引为35.0%–36.0% 

• 短评：本季度在盈利能力与AI驱动的光通信需求方面表现极为强劲。营收同比接近翻倍，非GAAP营业利润率从去年同期的10.8%大幅扩张至32.2%，管理层强调云服务与AI网络对高端光学器件的需求持续旺盛。同时，定价能力、产品组合优化与运营执行同步改善，显示公司正高效转化行业高景气为盈利弹性。当前主要矛盾不在基本面，而在市场预期已高：尽管EPS超预期且Q4指引强劲，但因营收微幅不及共识，叠加股价在2026年已大幅上涨，盘后股价回落，反映投资者对“完美兑现”要求提升。后续关键变量包括：（1）2027–2028年AI光学需求能否持续快于供给，维持供需紧平衡；（2）在出货量扩大的同时，利润率扩张能否保持强劲；（3）共封装光学（CPO）与光电路交换等下一代技术是否开始贡献实质性收入。26财年第四季度建议交易区间：850美元至1300美元。积极前景。 

Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: $10.2B, +121.7% YoY, miss estimates by $2.25B. 

• 3Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.84, beat estimates by $0.22 

• 4Q26 Guidance: 4Q26 revenue guided to $11.0B to $12.5B and adjusted EPS to $0.65 to $0.79, both ahead of market expectations.  

• Comment: This was a mixed quarter with a better forward setup. Revenue surged 123% YoY, but the print missed both Street expectations and the company’s own prior guide because of customer site readiness delays and supply-chain constraints. On the other hand, margins recovered meaningfully, with gross margin improving to 9.9% from 6.3% in the prior quarter, which helped drive a clear EPS beat. The key positive is that management framed the revenue shortfall as timing rather than demand deterioration. Orders and backlog remain strong, AI GPU-related platforms contributed more than 80% of revenue, and the F4Q26 guide implies deferred demand should begin converting over the next quarter. The after-hours stock reaction, up about 18%, shows the market focused more on margin recovery and the stronger guide than on the revenue miss itself. The main risks remain execution and credibility. Investors still need proof that delayed revenue truly converts, that margins stay near current levels, and that legal and compliance overhangs do not broaden. The principal variables to monitor are F4 revenue conversion, gross-margin durability, manufacturing ramp outside the U.S., and whether backlog strength translates into a cleaner FY27 setup. 4Q26 recommended trading range: $27 to $40. Neutral Outlook. 

超微电脑公司（SMCI) 

• 26财年第三季度营收：102亿美元，同比增长121.7%，低于预期22.5亿美元 

• 26财年第三季度非公认会计准则每股收益：0.84美元，超出预期0.22美元 

• 26财年第四季度指引：营收110亿–125亿美元，调整后每股收益0.65–0.79美元，均高于市场预期 

• 短评：本季度表现喜忧参半，但前瞻格局明显改善。营收同比激增123%，但仍不及市场及公司自身此前指引，主因客户数据中心就绪延迟及供应链瓶颈导致交付推迟。然而，利润率显著修复：毛利率从上季度的6.3%回升至9.9%，推动EPS清晰超预期。管理层强调，收入缺口属时点性问题，而非需求减弱——订单与积压订单依然强劲，AI GPU相关平台贡献超80%营收，且Q4指引隐含被推迟的需求将在下一季度开始兑现。财报发布后股价盘后大涨约18%，显示市场更关注利润率复苏与强劲前瞻指引，而非单季营收缺口。主要风险仍集中在执行可信度：投资者需看到延迟收入确实转化、毛利率维持在当前水平，且法律与合规问题不进一步扩大。后续关键变量包括：（1）Q4营收能否顺利实现；（2）毛利率是否具备持续性；（3）美国以外制造产能爬坡进展；（4）强劲积压订单能否为27财年奠定更清晰、更可预测的增长基础。26财年第四季度建议交易区间：27美元至40美元。中性前景。 

Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET) 

• 1Q26 Revenue: $2.71B, +35.5% YoY, beat estimates by $90M. 

• 1Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.87, beat estimates by $0.06 

• 2Q26 Guidance: 2Q26 revenue guided to about $2.8B and adjusted EPS to about $0.88.  

• FY26 Guidance: FY26 revenue outlook was raised to about $11.5B, with AI-related revenue target increased to about $3.5B. 

• Comment: This was a strong quarter. Revenue growth remained very high, adjusted operating margin held at 47.8%, and cash flow from operations reached $1.69B. The print confirms that Arista is still benefiting from AI cluster networking, cloud capex, and strong hyperscaler demand. The issue was expectations rather than execution. Despite the beat, the stock sold off sharply because 2Q26 revenue guidance of about $2.8B was only slightly above expectations, while margin guidance of about 46% to 47% suggested some moderation. The market appears to have wanted a larger upside surprise after a strong run into earnings. The principal variables to monitor are AI revenue conversion, hyperscaler spending durability, enterprise demand recovery, and whether margins remain near the current range as mix evolves. 2Q26 recommended trading range: $120 to $180. Neutral Outlook. 

Arista Networks, Inc.（ANET) 

• 26财年第一季度营收：27.1亿美元，同比增长35.5%，超出预期9000万美元 

• 26财年第一季度非公认会计准则每股收益：0.87美元，超出预期0.06美元 

• 26财年第二季度指引：营收约28亿美元，调整后每股收益约0.88美元 

• 26财年全年指引：上调全年营收展望至约115亿美元；AI相关收入目标提升至约35亿美元 

• 短评：本季度表现强劲。营收保持高速增长，调整后营业利润率稳定在47.8%，经营活动现金流达16.9亿美元，再次验证公司正持续受益于AI集群组网、云资本开支及超大规模客户（hyperscaler）。然而，市场反应负面，股价大幅回调，主因前瞻指引未达高涨预期：Q2营收指引仅略超共识，且毛利率指引（约46%–47%）暗示短期可能温和回落。在财报前股价已大幅上涨的背景下，投资者期待更显著的上修惊喜，而实际指引偏稳健，导致获利了结。后续关键变量包括：（1）AI相关收入能否高效转化为确认营收；（2）超大规模客户支出是否具备持续性；（3）企业端需求能否回暖形成第二增长曲线；（4）在产品组合演变过程中，利润率能否维持在当前高位区间。26财年第二季度建议交易区间：120美元至180美元。中性前景。 

Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB) 

• 1Q26 Revenue: $308.36M, +93.5% YoY, beat estimates by $16.04M. 

• 1Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.61, beat estimates by $0.07 

• 2Q26 Guidance: 2Q26 revenue guided to $355M to $365M and adjusted EPS to $0.68 to $0.70, both above expectations.  

• Comment: This was a very strong quarter. Revenue rose 14% sequentially and 93% YoY, while gross margin remained high at 76.3% and operating leverage improved materially. The result indicates Astera is still converting AI infrastructure demand into both growth and profitability rather than only backlog expansion. The key positive is product breadth and forward demand. Management highlighted strong growth in PCIe 6 AI fabric and signal-conditioning products, and also announced shipments of the new Scorpio X-Series 320-lane AI fabric switch. The Q2 guide implies another step up in revenue and earnings, which supports the view that demand remains strong across rack-scale AI connectivity. The main issue is valuation and expectations. The stock had already been strong into the print, so the hurdle was high even for a beat-and-raise quarter. The principal variables to monitor are sustained revenue conversion from AI cluster deployments, continued gross-margin resilience as newer products ramp, and whether Astera can broaden customer concentration risk as it scales. 2Q26 recommended trading range: $190 to $260. Neutral Outlook. 

Astera Labs, Inc.（ALAB) 

• 26财年第一季度营收：3.0836亿美元，同比增长93.5%，超出预期1604万美元 

• 26财年第一季度非公认会计准则每股收益：0.61美元，超出预期0.07美元 

• 26财年第二季度指引：营收3.55亿–3.65亿美元，调整后每股收益0.68–0.70美元，均高于市场预期 

• 短评：本季度表现极为强劲。营收环比增长14%、同比大增93%，毛利率维持在高位76.3%，运营杠杆显著改善，印证公司正将AI基础设施需求切实转化为增长与盈利，而非仅积累订单。核心亮点在于产品广度与前瞻需求可见性：管理层强调PCIe 6 AI互连架构与信号调理产品强劲增长，并已开始出货新一代Scorpio X-Series 320通道AI互连交换芯片。Q2指引隐含收入与利润再上台阶，支持“机架级AI连接需求持续旺盛”的逻辑。主要挑战在于估值与预期已高：财报前股价已有显著涨幅，即便交出“超预期+上调指引”的优异成绩，市场反应仍偏谨慎。后续关键变量包括：（1）AI集群部署能否持续驱动收入兑现；（2）新产品放量过程中毛利率能否保持韧性；（3）随着规模扩大，能否有效降低客户集中度风险。26财年第二季度建议交易区间：190美元至260美元。中性前景。 

Strategy Inc (MSTR) 

• 1Q26 Revenue: $124.3M, +11.9% YoY, miss estimates by $0.77M. 

• 1Q26 GAAP EPS: -$38.25, beat estimates by $19.27 

• FY26 Guidance: Management highlighted 9.4% BTC Yield year to date, 213,371 sats per share as of May 2026, and continued emphasis on growing bitcoin per share through capital markets activity.  

• Comment: This was a mixed quarter. The software business was a minor positive, with revenue growing to $124.3M, but the reported earnings were dominated by a $14.46B unrealized digital-asset loss, driving an operating loss of $14.47B and net loss of $12.54B. Cash remained sizable at $2.21B as of March 31, 2026, which provides some balance-sheet flexibility despite higher financing obligations. The real focus remains the bitcoin treasury strategy. Strategy held 818,334 BTC as of May 3, 2026, making it still the largest corporate bitcoin holder by a wide margin. The company also raised roughly $11.7B year to date, split roughly evenly between common equity and preferred instruments, which supports continued bitcoin accumulation but also increases dependence on capital-market access and preferred financing costs. The stock reaction was relatively contained given the scale of the accounting loss, which suggests investors remain focused on bitcoin per share growth rather than GAAP earnings volatility. The principal variables to monitor are bitcoin price direction, funding costs on preferred instruments, the company’s ability to remain a net bitcoin acquirer, and whether dilution remains acceptable relative to BTC-per-share growth. 2Q26 recommended trading range: $150 to $210. Neutral Outlook. 

Strategy Inc.（MSTR) 

• 26财年第一季度营收：1.243亿美元，同比增长11.9%，略低于预期77万美元 

• 26财年第一季度公认会计准则每股亏损：38.25美元，优于预期19.27美元（亏损收窄） 

• 26财年全年指引：管理层强调2026年至今比特币（BTC）收益率达9.4%；截至2026年5月，每股持有213,371聪（sats）；重申通过资本市场活动持续提升“每股比特币”为核心战略 

• 短评：本季度表现高度混合，但符合其独特商业模式逻辑。软件业务小幅增长至1.243亿美元，构成轻微正面贡献；然而，财报被144.6亿美元未实现数字资产减值损失主导，导致运营亏损144.7亿美元、净亏损125.4亿美元。尽管如此，公司仍持有22.1亿美元现金（截至2026年3月31日），提供一定资产负债表灵活性，以应对日益增长的融资义务。真正的焦点始终是其比特币国库战略：截至2026年5月3日，公司持有818,334枚BTC，仍是全球持有量最大的上市公司。2026年迄今已通过资本市场筹集约117亿美元（普通股与优先股各半），支撑持续购入比特币，但也加剧了对资本市场准入及优先股融资成本的依赖。尽管GAAP亏损规模巨大，股价反应相对克制，表明投资者聚焦“每股比特币”增长，而非会计利润波动。后续关键变量包括：（1）比特币价格走势；（2）优先股工具的融资成本；（3）公司能否维持净买入BTC状态；（4）股权稀释程度是否在“每股BTC增长”逻辑下仍可被市场接受。26财年第二季度建议交易区间：150美元至210美元。中性前景。 

Navitas Semiconductor Corp. (NVTS) 

• 1Q26 Revenue: $8.59M, -38.7% YoY, beat estimates by $0.41M. 

• 1Q26 GAAP EPS: -$0.15, miss estimates by $0.05 

• 2Q26 Guidance: 2Q26 revenue guided to $10.0M ± $0.5M, above consensus expectations, with non-GAAP gross margin expected at 39.0% to 39.5%.  

• Comment: The quarter was better than feared and showed early signs that the business mix is improving. Revenue grew 18% sequentially to $8.6M, non-GAAP gross margin improved to 39.0% from 38.7% in the prior quarter, and management pointed to stronger contribution from high-power end markets such as AI data centers, energy and grid infrastructure, performance computing, and industrial electrification.  The main issue is that the company is still very small and still in transition. Revenue remains sharply below the prior year, GAAP gross margin stayed negative at -9.3%, and profitability is still not close to breakeven. The market reaction was positive after the release because investors focused on the sequential recovery and stronger Q2 outlook, but the story remains heavily dependent on successful execution of the pivot away from legacy mobile exposure toward higher-power applications.  The principal variables to monitor are whether sequential revenue growth continues through the rest of 2026, whether high-power markets become a clear majority of revenue, whether gross margin keeps improving as mix shifts, and whether backlog converts into a more durable scale-up. 2Q26 recommended trading range: $14 to $20. Neutral Outlook. 

Navitas Semiconductor Corp.（NVTS) 

• 26财年第一季度营收：859万美元，同比下降38.7%，略超预期41万美元 

• 26财年第一季度公认会计准则每股亏损：0.15美元，低于预期0.05美元（亏损扩大） 

• 26财年第二季度指引：营收1000万美元（±50万美元），高于市场共识；非GAAP毛利率预计为39.0%–39.5% 

• 短评：本季度表现好于市场最悲观预期，并显现业务结构改善的初步迹象。营收环比增长18%至859万美元，非GAAP毛利率从上季度的38.7%微升至39.0%，管理层指出高功率终端市场（如AI数据中心、能源与电网基础设施、高性能计算及工业电气化）贡献增强，反映公司正逐步摆脱对传统移动市场的依赖。然而，公司仍处转型早期且规模极小：同比营收大幅下滑，GAAP毛利率仍为负9.3%，整体盈利距离盈亏平衡尚远。财报发布后股价反应积极，主因投资者聚焦环比复苏趋势与Q2更强指引。但故事成败高度依赖能否成功执行向高功率应用的战略转型。后续关键变量包括：（1）2026年剩余季度能否维持环比收入增长；（2）高功率市场是否成为营收绝对主力；（3）产品组合优化能否持续推动毛利率提升；（4）现有订单积压能否转化为可持续的规模化增长。26财年第二季度建议交易区间：14美元至20美元。中性前景。 

Tempus AI Inc. (TEM) 

• 1Q26 Revenue: $348.11M, +36.1% YoY, beat estimates by $2.67M. 

• 1Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: -$0.13, beat estimates by $0.07 

• FY26 Guidance: Raised its outlook to $1.59B to $1.60B, representing approximately 25% annual growth. The company maintained its adjusted EBITDA guidance of approximately $65M for the full year.  

• Comment: Tempus AI reported mixed first-quarter results, with revenue rising 36.1% YoY to US$348.1mn, slightly ahead of expectations, but losses remaining a concern as GAAP net loss widened to US$125.9mn. Diagnostics revenue grew 34.7% to US$261.1mn, supported by 28% oncology volume growth, while minimal residual disease testing surged about 500% to roughly 6,500 tests. Data and Applications revenue increased 40.5% to US$87.0mn, showing continued demand for Tempus’ AI-driven healthcare data platform. However, shares fell after full-year revenue guidance of US$1.59bn to US$1.60bn came in broadly in line with expectations rather than meaningfully above them, while adjusted EBITDA guidance was maintained at around US$65mn. Looking ahead, Tempus remains a compelling long-term precision medicine and AI diagnostics story, but investor confidence will depend on whether rapid revenue growth and MRD adoption can translate into clearer operating leverage and sustained profitability. 2Q26 recommended trading range: $48 to $58. Neutral Outlook. 

Tempus AI 公司 (TEM) 

• 26财年第一季度营收：3.4811亿美元，同比增长36.1%，超出预期2670万美元。 

• 26财年第一季度Non-GAAP每股收益：-0.13美元，超出预期0.07美元。 

• 26财年指引：上调全年展望至15.9亿至16.0亿美元，预计约对应25%的年度增长。公司维持全年调整后EBITDA指引约6500万美元不变。 

• 短评：Tempus AI公布的第一季度业绩较为“冷热不均”：营收同比增长36.1%至3.481亿美元，略好于预期；但亏损仍是市场关注点——GAAP净亏损扩大至1.259亿美元。诊断业务营收增长34.7%至2.611亿美元，受益于肿瘤业务量增长28%；而“微小残留病灶（MRD）”检测大幅飙升约500%至约6,500项。数据与应用（Data and Applications）营收增长40.5%至8700万美元，显示Tempus基于AI的医疗数据平台需求仍在持续。不过，股价在盘后/随后下跌：原因在于全年营收指引15.9亿至16.0亿美元整体与预期基本一致，并没有显著高于预期；同时调整后EBITDA指引仍维持在约6500万美元。展望未来，Tempus在长期“精准医疗+AI诊断”的故事上仍具吸引力，但投资者信心将取决于：能否将快速的营收增长和MRD渗透，进一步转化为更清晰的运营杠杆，并实现持续盈利。26财年第二季度建议交易区间：48美元至58美元。中性前景。