United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings
Geopark Ltd. (GPRK US)
- Shares closed above the 5dEMA with elevated volume for the last 2 weeks.
- Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
- Long – Entry 9.3, Target 10.3, Stop 8.8
Kosmos Energy Ltd. (KOS US)
- Shares closed above the 5wEMA with elevated volume for the month.
- RSI is slightly overbought but MACD is still constructive.
- Long – Entry 2.9, Target 3.3, Stop 2.7
HRnetGroup Ltd. (HRNET SP)
- Shares closed above the 5wEMA with elevated volume for the week.
- Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
- Buy – Entry 0.71, Target 0.85, Stop 0.64
Hotel Grand Central Ltd. (GRAN SP)
- Shares closed above the 5dEMA with elevated volume for the week.
- RSI is constructive and MACD is about to turn positive.
- Buy – Entry 0.70, Target 0.76, Stop 0.67
Innovent Biologics, Inc. (1801 HK)
- Shares closed above the 100dEMA with a surge in volume.
- RSI is constructive, while MACD is about to turn positive.
- Long – Entry 83, Target 91, Stop 79
CSPC Pharmaceutical Group Limited (1093 HK)
- Shares closed above the 100dEMA.
- RSI is constructive, while MACD is about to tun positive.
- Long – Entry 9.0, Target 10.0, Stop 8.5
Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL)
- 1Q26 Revenue: $6.17B, +6.2% YoY, beat estimates by $30M
- 1Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.20, beat estimates by $0.02
- FY26 Guidance: Cut FY26 adjusted EPS outlook to $2.21 from $2.48 and lowered adjusted EBITDA outlook to $7.19B from $7.63B, despite modestly improved operational assumptions, due mainly to more than $500M of higher fuel cost headwind.
- Share Buybacks: Announced an initial $2.5B share buyback program.
- Comment: The quarter itself was solid. Carnival delivered record first quarter revenue, record net yields, record adjusted EBITDA, and record customer deposits. Adjusted EBITDA reached $1.27B versus prior guidance of $1.24B, while adjusted net income came in at $275M and adjusted EPS at $0.20. Customer deposits rose to $7.9B from $7.3B a year ago, which supports the view that close in demand and forward booking momentum remain healthy. The underlying operating picture remains constructive. Net yields rose 2.7% versus prior guidance of 1.6%, and management said bookings taken for 2026 sailings were up double digits. External coverage also noted that about 85% of 2026 inventory is already sold, which reinforces pricing visibility even as macro and geopolitical noise remains elevated. The problem is that fuel is now dominating the earnings discussion. Carnival does not typically hedge fuel, so the recent oil spike hit guidance directly. Management said operational improvement of roughly $150M was more than offset by over $500M of higher fuel costs, which forced the full year EPS reset. That means the business is executing, but the stock is still exposed to an external cost line that can overwhelm operating gains in the near term. Capital allocation is improving, but I would not overread it yet. The new buyback is a positive signal and management’s medium term framework points to deleveraging and stronger shareholder distributions over time. Still, for the next few quarters, investors are likely to care more about fuel, yield durability, and whether close in demand stays firm than about the longer dated capital return story. Shares fell about 4% on the day of the release even though the quarter beat, because the market focused on the FY26 guidance cut and Carnival’s fuel sensitivity. The earnings revision matters more near term because it reminds the market that Carnival still has meaningful unhedged commodity exposure. Three things to watch closely: fuel price normalization, whether net yield outperformance continues into Q2 and summer bookings, and whether onboard revenue momentum remains strong enough to offset cost pressure. 2Q26 recommended trading range: $22 to $28. Neutral Outlook.
嘉年华集团（CCL)
- 26财年第一季度营收：61.7亿美元，同比增长6.2%，超出预期3000万美元
- 26财年第一季度非公认会计准则每股收益：0.20美元，超出预期0.02美元
- 26财年全年指引：下调调整后每股收益至2.21美元（原为2.48美元）；调整后EBITDA降至71.9亿美元（原为76.3亿美元），主因燃油成本增加超5亿美元，尽管运营假设略有改善
- 股票回购：宣布启动一项25亿美元的股票回购计划
- 短评：本季度运营表现强劲。公司创下一季度历史最高营收、净收益率（net yields），调整后EBITDA达12.7亿美元（高于指引12.4亿美元），客户预存款增至79亿美元（去年同期73亿），显示近期需求与远期预订势头健康。管理层指出，2026年航次预订量同比双位数增长，且约85%的2026年舱位已售出，强化了定价能见度。然而，燃油成本成为盈利主导变量——由于公司通常不对冲燃油价格，近期油价飙升直接冲击全年指引。尽管运营改善贡献约1.5亿美元收益，但被超5亿美元的燃油成本增量完全抵消，迫使全年EPS下调。这凸显一个关键矛盾：业务执行良好，但短期盈利高度暴露于未对冲的大宗商品风险。资本配置有所改善，25亿美元回购释放积极信号，中长期亦指向去杠杆与更高股东回报，但市场短期内更关注外部成本波动。财报发布当日股价下跌约4%，反映投资者对指引下调及燃油敏感性的担忧盖过当季超预期。后续关键变量包括：（1）燃油价格能否回归正常水平；（2）净收益率优势能否延续至第二季度及暑期旺季；（3）船上消费收入动能是否足以缓冲成本压力。核心观察点在于燃油成本走势、收益率可持续性及近期预订强度。26财年第二季度建议交易区间：22美元至28美元。中性前景。
