Company Update: 18 March 2026

Pricing Power and Cleaner Cash Flow Lens


Management’s FY26 Doule Digit Sales Outlook Initially Looked Aggressive

Brand VGA ASP was already US$493 in 1H25 and US$452 in 2H25, while formal guidance only points to around US$500 in FY26. We now think this should be read as a floor, not a ceiling, given management is minimizing MSRP models, exiting low end SKUs and pushing premium boards harder.

Raise FY26 Revenue Growth Forecast to +12.3% from – 15.2%

Just as importantly, we think the probability of a 2022 and 2023 style revenue collapse after FY26 is now lower, with the next consumer GPU refresh wave likely to start building again into 2H27 in our base case.

Valuation & Action

We maintain Outperform and raise our 12-month TP to S$2.54 from S$1.73. Better mix and pricing support FY26 growth, while our revised DCF now uses a stricter FCFF definition that strips out the import loan funding benefit.

Risks

Weaker than expected sell through after price hikes, tighter GPU allocation, deeper OEM and ODM weakness, and a slower handoff into the next cycle. The Section 301 tariff item also remains unresolved.



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