Buy the Dip and Play It Safe
Chart of the Week:
Gold Volatile in the Short Term, but Long-Term Bull Case Intact
Since January, the surge in call-option open interest in the precious metals futures market triggered a gamma squeeze, forcing market makers to buy spot gold. On January 30, U.S. President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, reducing policy uncertainty and prompting rapid call-option unwinding. This again forced market makers to sell spot gold to maintain delta neutrality.
Market Recap 1:
Tech Earnings Drive Massive AI Capex; High-Valuation Stocks Face Sharp Multiple Compression
Following earnings announcements, major tech companies—Microsoft, Amazon, and Google—all indicated plans to further increase AI-related capital expenditures. Total AI spending by mega-cap tech firms is expected to exceed USD 500 billion this year.
Market Recap 2:
Risk-Off Sentiment Drives Flows Into U.S. Treasuries; Gold, Silver, and Crypto Suffer Heavy Declines
U.S. labor data weakened, with initial jobless claims rising by 22,000 to 231,000, higher than market expectations. The clear cooling in the labor market intensified speculation that the Fed may deliver larger rate cuts this year. At the same time, market sentiment turned defensive. Elevated tech-sector capital expenditures further pushed investors toward safer assets, resulting in strong inflows into U.S. Treasuries—particularly the 10-year Treasury, which posted the largest rebound. However, its three-month performance remains negative, reflecting market expectations that the newly nominated Fed chair will promote a rate-cut-plus-quantitative-tightening path, steepening the yield curve.
What’s Trending:
Fed Chair Nomination Announced; Rate Cuts and Balance-Sheet Reduction May Proceed in Tandem
On January 30, President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to succeed Chair Powell when his term ends in May. Although Warsh is often viewed as hawkish, such characterization may be incomplete. Based on his prior remarks, Warsh believes rate cuts and balance-sheet reduction can occur simultaneously, a stance that aligns with the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory over the past two years.
In Focus 1:
AI Growth Lifts Infrastructure Demand
AI has expanded from chips and large language models into the construction and operation of physical infrastructure. In July 2025, President Trump announced a national strategy to secure U.S. leadership in AI, accelerating domestic AI infrastructure development and calling for streamlined approval processes for data centers exceeding 100MW, which is expected to speed up infrastructure supply. According to reports from the World Economic Forum and investment institutions, cumulative global investment in AI-supporting infrastructure had already reached several trillion U.S. dollars by early 2026. McKinsey estimates that by 2040, global spending on new and upgraded infrastructure could represent opportunities totaling up to USD 106 trillion.
In Focus 2:
S&P 500 Infrastructure Supported by Policy, Resilient Performance with Valuations Below 5Y Average
President Trump’s core policy agenda emphasizes domestic infrastructure investment, energy independence, manufacturing reshoring, and supply chain reconfiguration. To advance these goals, multiple executive actions have been introduced to ease certain regulations, while tariffs are used to enhance corporate investment incentives. Infrastructure spending led by AI-related projects is driving upgrades to power grids, transmission and distribution systems, and energy facilities. As much of this capital expenditure is executed through federal- and state-led government projects, contracts tend to be long-dated with stable funding sources, improving earnings visibility and profitability for companies and making the index more resilient than the broader market.
