Record High for Silver and Copper
Chart of the Week:
U.S. Holiday Spending Surges, E-Commerce Takes the Lead
Adobe Analytics reported that with U.S. economic conditions turning less stable, consumers increasingly rely on AI to compare prices online, hunt for deals, and even defer purchases until discount days. This year’s Black Friday online retail sales hit USD 11.8bn, up 9.1% YoY, a new record. Holiday-season online spending (Nov 1–Dec 31) is projected to reach USD 253.4bn, up 5.3% YoY. Key trends: 1. “Buy now, pay later” is expected to drive spending growth. 2. AI-driven traffic to retail sites surged 805% YoY, delivering significant contribution. 3. Mobile payments remain dominant; roughly 55% of Black Friday online sales came from smartphones, totaling USD 6.5bn (+10% YoY).
Market Recap 1:
U.S. Manufacturing Weakens as Markets Await Fed Rate Signals
The U.S. November ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.2, marking a ninth straight month below the 50 contraction threshold. New orders, backlogs, and supplier deliveries all dropped sharply, while the prices index rose, keeping stagflation concerns alive. Although services PMI edged up from 52.4 to 52.6, ADP employment data weakened, driven by a notable pickup in small-business layoffs. Markets now assign an 89% probability of a 25 bps cut at the December Fed meeting, well above 63% a month ago. Kevin Hassett, Chair of the White House National Economic Council, is viewed as a leading candidate for Fed Chair; his dovish stance and close ties with Trump have strengthened expectations of future monetary easing, lifting U.S. equities.
Market Recap 2:
Japan Rate-Hike Expectations Lift Long-End JGB Yields; USD Softens, Bitcoin Volatility Rises
ADP “mini nonfarm” data showed U.S. November employment rose by 32k fewer jobs than the prior month, missing expectations for a 10k increase, reflecting softer conditions and more cautious hiring. While Fed rate-cut expectations have strengthened, long-end JGB yields jumped sharply, pulling global sovereign yields higher. Long-tenor rates rose more than short-tenor, pressuring bonds. The PBoC on Nov 29 issued a warning against all illegal activities related to digital currencies, weighing on Hong Kong–listed digital-asset names.
What’s Trending:
Rate-Hike Expectations Support JPY Strength; Domestic-Demand Stocks Less FX-Sensitive
After the BOJ Governor sent a hawkish signal this week, markets have now priced in a 25 bps hike this month. The expected hike aims to ease concerns over JPY weakness, as an overly weak yen would intensify imported inflation and weigh on consumption. Japan’s benchmark rate remains at 0.5%, the second lowest in the G20, leaving room for tightening.
In Focus 1:
Industrial Demand Surge and Softer USD, Coupled With Supply Constraints, Drive Silver to New Highs
Silver recently hit an all-time high, rising over 90% YTD and outperforming gold. The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) estimates this year’s supply deficit will equal roughly 9% of annual demand, marking a third consecutive year of shortage. Beyond support from Fed rate-cut expectations and a weaker USD, silver mine output in Latin America has declined over the past decade due to closures, resource depletion, and infrastructure challenges, while demand from India, global investors, and industrial sectors has surged.
In Focus 2:
Short-Term Copper Tightness Persists; Medium-Term Demand Momentum Softens on Economic Slowdown
Although President Trump exempted refined copper from tariffs, he announced the policy will be reviewed in 2H26, keeping markets cautious about potential future tariffs. Policy uncertainty has prompted metal importers to accelerate shipments, while tariff expectations and geopolitical arbitrage have pushed copper prices to new highs. Global AI infrastructure build-out and the energy transition are driving electricity demand higher, supporting copper consumption. Since 2022, China’s property curbs but strong support for new-energy industries have created divergence between iron ore and copper prices. In the near term, China’s policy backing keeps copper demand firm, though EV production growth has started to slow.
