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Chart of the Week:
Trump Drives Crypto Policy; House Passes Key Bills with Broad Support
The U.S. House overwhelmingly passed three major crypto-related bills last week—GENIUS, CLARITY, and Anti-CBDC—despite some midweek setbacks. Under Trump’s leadership, a structured legislative roadmap has emerged, signaling a regulatory embrace rather than a crackdown. The GENIUS Act, which sets clear rules for stablecoins to support institutional capital flows and real-world payment use cases, passed with a strong 308–122 vote, gaining support from over 100 Democrats and is expected to become law. The CLARITY Act, which defines the primary regulatory authority for digital assets, passed 294–134 and moves to the Senate. The Anti-CBDC Act reinforces the core principle of decentralized currencies and protects financial freedom.
Market Recap 1:
Nvidia China Export Ban Lifted; U.S. Tech Stocks and Hong Kong Markets Rally
Following close negotiations with the U.S. government, Nvidia’s H20 chips have been cleared for export to China. The news triggered a sharp rally in Nvidia shares and boosted related tech stocks. The Nasdaq, heavily weighted in tech, led the four major U.S. indexes. Sector-wise, Information Technology posted the strongest gains among the 11 sectors. In contrast, the Dow underperformed, weighed down by investor concerns that upcoming earnings may reflect higher costs from tariffs. So far, about 60% of companies have reported better-than-expected results—below the 60–80% beat rate seen from 3Q24 to 1Q25.
Market Recap 2:
Tariff News Weighs on Asia Credit, Lifts Copper Prices; Yen Faces Near-Term Pressure
Core inflation continued to ease, but services inflation edged higher, driving June CPI above expectations. Retail sales rose sharply, with June’s MoM growth rebounding from -0.9% to 0.6%, well above the 0.1% forecast—signaling resilient consumer demand. With solid economic momentum and sticky inflation, the Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady in July. Market sentiment remains risk-on. Bonds were under pressure, with only European IG and Asian HY outperforming—European IG supported by geopolitical risk, and Asian HY buoyed by China’s improving data, which has lowered credit risk given its heavy weighting.
What’s Trending:
June CPI Tops Forecasts; Implied Odds of September Rate Cut Dip Slightly
U.S. CPI rose 0.3% MoM in June, in line with Bloomberg consensus but higher than May’s 0.1%. YoY, inflation came in at 2.7%, slightly above the 2.6% forecast and May’s 2.4%. Housing inflation continued to ease, but service inflation edged up, mainly due to higher medical service costs. Goods inflation was driven by rising furniture prices, while autos—both new and used—saw price declines, with no clear signs of tariff impact yet. Core CPI rose 0.2% MoM, just below the 0.3% estimate but above May’s 0.1%. The YoY core figure held at 2.9%, in line with forecasts but still above May’s 2.8%.
In Focus 1:
U.S. Effective Tariff Rate Could Exceed 15%; Long-Term Goal: Drive Onshoring of Manufacturing
Following the implementation of high tariffs on April 2, 2025 (Liberation Day), many countries entered negotiations with the U.S. during the three-month consultation window. The U.K.—with a trade surplus and strong alignment with Trump—was the first to reach a deal, securing a reciprocal tariff floor of 10–20%. This illustrates Trump’s clear goal of reshaping global trade through tariff pressure, ultimately aiming to drive companies to relocate production to the U.S. and re-establish American industrial dominance.
In Focus 2:
Foreign and Corporate Investment in U.S. Rises; Tariff Pressure Drives Auto and Parts Production Back Home
In his second term, Trump has made it clear that his economic strategy centers on attracting trillions of dollars in investment to restore U.S. manufacturing dominance, with tariffs as the key driver. Corporates have responded with over $2 trillion in new investment announcements. U.S. allies in the Middle East and Japan have pledged an additional $4.2 trillion. Goldman Sachs estimates over $1 trillion in actual investment will be realized this year. Corporate capex is expected to account for 1.5% of GDP, while foreign capital could add another 2.5%, supporting economic growth.
