Technical Analysis – 05 August 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Clorox Co. (CLX US)

• Shares closed at a high since Apr 2024 with more volume, above the 200dEMA. 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA and 50dEMA.
• MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
• Long – Entry 143 Target 153, Stop 138

Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ US)

• Shares closed at a high since May 24, above the 200dEMA. 5dEMA recently crossed the 50dEMA and is about to cross the 200dEMA.
• MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
• Long – Entry 70.0, Target 75.0, Stop 67.5

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Wilmar International Ltd. (WIL SP)

• Shares closed at a high since May 2024. 5dEMA recently crossed the 50dEMA and 20dEMA is about to cross the 50dEMA.
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
• Long – Entry 3.17, Target 3.37, Stop 3.07

Centurion Corp. (CENT SP)

• Shares closed near its 52-week high.
• MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
• Long – Entry 0.630 Target 0.670, Stop 0.610

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Yancoal Australia Ltd (3668 HK)

• Shares closed above the 20dEMA. The 5dEMA crossed the 20dEMA.
• RSI is constructive, while MACD is about to turn positive.
• Long – Entry 36.1, Target 38.7, Stop 34.8

Sinopec Engineering Group Co Ltd (2386 HK)

• Shares closed above the 50dEMA with a jump in volume. The 5dEMA crossed the 20dEMA and 50dEMA.
• RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
• Long – Entry 5.14, Target 5.48, Stop 4.97

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Crocs Inc. (CROX)

• 2Q24 Revenue: $1.12B, +4.7% YoY, beat estimates by $20M
• 2Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $4.01, beat estimates by $0.44
• 3Q24 Guidance: Expect revenue to be down 1.5% to up 0.5% YoY, vs consensus of $1.08B; Expect Crocs Brand to grow 3% to 5% YoY, HEYDUDE Brand to be down 16% to 14% YoY; Expect adjusted operating margin of approx. 24.5%; Expect adjusted diluted EPS of $2.95 to $3.10 vs $3.37 consensus. FY24 Guidance: Expect revenue growth of 3% to 5% YoY, vs 4.14%; Expect revenue for Crocs Brand to grow approximately 7% to 9%, Expect revenue of HEYDUDE Brand to be down approximately 10% to 8%; Expect adjusted operating margin of more than 25% compared to approximately 25% previously; Expect adjusted diluted EPS of $12.45 to $12.90 vs $12.64 consensus, compared to prior guidance of $12.25 to $12.73.
• Comment: Crocs reported a strong set of results but warned that its profit in the coming quarter may be weaker than expected. While its HEYDUDE brand remains a bit of a drag, with declining sales in the quarter, it performed better than feared as margins expanded, while the Crocs brand remains a strong seller in regions across the world. Crocs expects its namesake brand to keep growing sales, but its HEYDUDE brand, responsible for nearly $200mn of second-quarter revenue, is expected to see sales fall as much as 10% for the full year. The company also increased its FY24 EPS outlook, showing optimism in sales for the last quarter of the year. The company also highlighted that it will increase marketing efforts for its HEYDUDE brand in 2H24. Recent improving consumer sentiments may provide a boost to the company’s sales in the near term as well. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $110 to $160. Neutral Outlook.

卡骆驰 (CROX)

• 24财年第二季营收：11.2亿美元，同比增幅4.7%，超预期2,000万美元
• 24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：4.01美元，超预期0.44美元
• 24财年第三季指引：预计收入将同比下降1.5%至增长0.5%，而市场预期为10.8亿美元；预计卡洛驰品牌将同比增长3%至5%，HEYDUDE品牌将同比下降16%至14%；预计调整后的营业利润率约为。24.5%；预计调整后的稀释每股收益为2.95美元至3.10美元，而市场预期为3.37美元。24财年指引：预计收入同比增长3% – 5%，vs . 4.14%；预计卡洛驰品牌收入将增长约7%至9%，HEYDUDE品牌收入将下降约10%至8%;预计调整后的营业利润率将超过25%，而此前约为25%；预期调整后的摊薄每股收益为12.45美元至12.90美元，而之前的指引为12.25美元至12.73美元，市场预期为12.64美元。
• 短评：卡洛驰公布了一系列强劲的业绩，但警告称，下一季度的利润可能低于预期。尽管该公司的HEYDUDE品牌仍是一个拖累，本季度销售额有所下降，但随着利润率的扩大，它的表现好于人们的担忧，而卡洛驰品牌在全球各地区仍是一个畅销品牌。公司预计其同名品牌的销售额将保持增长，但其HEYDUDE品牌第二季度收入近2亿美元，预计全年销售额将下降10%。该公司还上调了24财年每股盈利预期，显示出对今年最后一个季度销售的乐观态度。该公司还强调，将在下半年加大HEYDUDE品牌的营销力度。近期消费者信心的改善也可能在短期内提振该公司的销售。24年第三季度建议交易区间：110至160美元。中性前景。

Amazon.com Inc (AMZN)

• 2Q24 Revenue: $148B, +10.2% YoY, miss estimates by $760M
• 2Q24 GAAP EPS: $1.26, beat estimates by $0.23
• 3Q24 Guidance: Expect net sales to be between $154.0bn and $158.5bn vs $158.33bn consensus; Expect operating income to be between $11.5bn and $15.0bn.
• Comment: Amazon reported mixed results and provided slightly weaker-than-expected guidance. The company’s core retail business continues to experience sluggish growth, facing increasing competition from discount rivals like Temu and Shein. Despite so, the company has also been benefitting from improving consumer sentiments, with its annual Prime Day in July seeing record-breaking sales   For the company’s cloud business, Amazon exceeded expectations with AWS, reporting a 19% growth to $26.3 billion, surpassing the anticipated 17.6% growth. Amazon emphasized that AWS remains a top choice for customers due to its broad functionality, superior security, operational performance, extensive partner ecosystem, and enhanced AI capabilities. Looking ahead, Amazon plans to increase spending to meet the growing demand for AI services, driven by the rising need for computational power associated with artificial intelligence. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $160 to $190. Neutral Outlook.

亚马逊 (AMZN)

• 24财年第二季营收：1,480亿美元，同比增幅10.2%，逊预期7.6亿美元
• 24财年第二季GAAP每股盈利：1.26美元，超预期0.23美元
• 24财年第三季指引：预计净销售额将在1,540亿美元至1,585亿美元之间，而市场预期为1,583.3亿美元；预计营业利润将在115亿美元至150亿美元之间。
• 短评：亚马逊公布了喜忧参半的业绩，并提供了略低于预期的指引。该公司的核心零售业务继续增长缓慢，面临着来自Temu和Shein等折扣对手日益激烈的竞争。尽管如此，该公司也受益于消费者情绪的改善，7月份的年度黄金会员日(Prime Day)创下了创纪录的销售额。亚马逊的云业务AWS超出了预期，增长了19%，达到263亿美元，超过了预期的17.6%。亚马逊强调，由于其广泛的功能、卓越的安全性、运营性能、广泛的合作伙伴生态系统和增强的人工智能能力，AWS仍然是客户的首选。展望未来，亚马逊计划增加支出，以满足对人工智能相关计算能力不断增长的需求，从而满足对人工智能服务日益增长的需求。24年第三季度建议交易区间：160至190美元。中性前景。

Apple Inc (AAPL)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $85.8B, +4.9% YoY, beat estimates by $1.42B
• 3Q24 GAAP EPS: $1.40, beat estimates by $0.06
• 3Q24 Dividend: Apple declares a $0.25/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous; Forward yield 0.46%; Payable Aug. 15; for shareholders of record Aug. 12; ex-div Aug. 12.
• 4Q24 Guidance: Expect similar overall revenue growth in the current quarter; Expect services to grow at about the same rate as the previous three quarters, at about 14%; Expect operating expenditures between $14.2bn and $14.4bn in the current quarter; Expects gross margin of between 45.5% and 46.5%.
• Comment: Apple reported better-than-expected results, with excitement over its new AI features offsetting a continued decline in its key China market. While the company cannot yet quantify the positive sales impact of its newly announced Apple Intelligence service until it starts shipping later this fall, it has increased spending to prepare the service. Despite dropping out of the top five smartphone providers in China earlier this year, Apple remains confident in its long-term prospects in the country. The company also experienced strong growth in its iPad division, which saw a nearly 24% year-over-year increase to $7.16 billion in sales, driven by the release of new iPads, the first since 2022, spurring a wave of upgrades. Notably, half of the iPad buyers were first-time customers, indicating that the tablet market is not yet saturated. Looking ahead, investors are eager to see the AI offerings Apple will bring to market. Additionally, an improved rate cut outlook and rising consumer sentiment are likely to boost Apple’s sales in the near term. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $200 to $250. Positive Outlook.

苹果 (AAPL)

• 24财年第三季营收：858亿美元，同比增幅4.9%，超预期14.2亿美元
• 24财年第三季GAAP每股盈利：1.4美元，超预期0.06美元
• 24财年第三季度股息：苹果宣布每股0.25美元的季度股息，与之前一致；远期股息率0.46%；8月15日为付息款；8月12日为股东登记日及除息日。
• 24财年第四季指引：预计当前季度的整体收入将出现类似增长；预计服务业务将以与前三个季度相同的速度增长，约为14%；预计当前季度的运营支出在142亿美元至144亿美元之间；预计毛利率在45.5%至46.5%之间。
• 短评：苹果公司公布了好于预期的业绩，市场对其新人工智能功能的热切期待抵消了其关键市场中国区业务的持续下滑。虽然苹果公司在今年秋天晚些时候开始发货之前，还不能量化新发布的苹果智能服务对销售的积极影响，但它已经增加了准备这项服务的支出。尽管今年早些时候跌出了中国前五大智能手机供应商之列，但苹果仍对其在中国的长期前景充满信心。该公司的iPad部门也实现了强劲增长，在新iPad发布的推动下，该部门的销售额同比增长近24%，达到71.6亿美元，这是自2022年以来的首次发布，引发了一波升级浪潮。值得注意的是，一半的iPad购买者是首次购买，这表明平板电脑市场尚未饱和。展望未来，投资者渴望看到苹果将为市场带来的人工智能产品。此外，降息前景的改善和消费者信心的上升可能会在短期内提振苹果的销售。24年第三季度建议交易区间：200至250美元。积极前景。

Intel Corp. (INTC)

• 2Q24 Revenue: $12.83B, -0.9% YoY, miss estimates by $150M
• 2Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.02, miss estimates by $0.08
• 3Q24 Guidance: Expect revenue of $12.5B to $13.5B vs consensus of $14.39B and non-GAAP EPS of -$0.03 vs consensus of $0.32. FY24 guidance: Cut spending on new plants and equipment in FY24 by more than 20%, expects to spend between $25B and $27B. FY25 Guidance: Expect expenses to be between $20B and $23B in gross capex spending.
• Comment: In the second quarter, Intel delivered revenue and earnings that missed analysts’ estimates, impacted by gross margin headwinds from the accelerated ramp of its AI PC product, higher than typical charges related to its non-core business and impact from unused capacity. The company announced it will cut over 15% of its workforce, around 17,500 jobs, and suspend its dividend in the fourth quarter as part of a turnaround strategy cantered on its struggling manufacturing business. The company forecasted lower-than-expected third-quarter revenue due to reduced spending on traditional data centre semiconductors and its lagging position in AI chips. The CEO emphasized focusing on the balance sheet and reducing costs, with plans to cut operating expenses and capital expenditure by over US$10bn in 2025. Despite efforts to develop advanced AI processors and enhance its foundry business, Intel’s data centre business declined 3% in the second quarter. The company anticipates third-quarter revenue between US$12.5bn and US$13.5bn, below analysts’ expectations, and faces challenges in profitability and market competition, particularly from Taiwan’s TSMC and AI leaders Nvidia and AMD. Intel’s efforts to cut costs and strengthen its balance sheet are unlikely to materially impact the company’s financial performance in the current quarter. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $20 to $30. Negative Outlook.

英特尔 (INTC)

• 24财年第二季营收：128.3亿美元，同比跌幅0.9%，逊预期1.5亿美元
• 24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.02美元，逊预期0.08美元
• 24财年第三季指引：预计营收为125亿至135亿美元，而市场预期为143.9亿美元；Non-GAAP每股亏损为0.03美元，而市场预期为盈利0.32美元。24财年指引：将新工厂和设备支出削减20%以上，预计支出在250亿至270亿美元之间。25财年指引：预计总资本支出在200亿至230亿美元之间。
• 短评：第二季度，受人工智能个人电脑产品加速增长带来的毛利率不利因素的影响，英特尔的收入和利润低于分析师的预期，高于与非核心业务相关的典型费用，以及未使用产能的影响。该公司宣布将裁员15%以上，约17500人，并在第四季度暂停派息，这是其以陷入困境的制造业为中心的扭亏为盈战略的一部分。该公司预计，由于传统数据中心半导体的支出减少，以及在人工智能芯片方面的落后地位，第三季度营收将低于预期。这位首席执行官强调将重点放在资产负债表和降低成本上，计划到2025年将运营支出和资本支出削减100亿美元以上。尽管英特尔努力开发先进的人工智能处理器并加强其代工业务，但其数据中心业务在第二季度下降了3%。该公司预计第三季度营收在125亿至135亿美元之间，低于分析师的预期，并面临盈利能力和市场竞争方面的挑战，尤其是来自台湾台积电(TSMC)以及人工智能领导者英伟达(Nvidia)和超微半导体(AMD)的竞争。英特尔削减成本和加强资产负债表的努力不太可能对公司当前季度的财务表现产生实质性影响。24年第三季度建议交易区间：20至30美元。负面前景。

Coinbase Global Inc (COIN)

• 2Q24 Revenue: $1.45B, +104.8%YoY, beat estimates by $90M
• 2Q24 GAAP EPS: $0.14, miss estimates by $0.78
• 3Q24 Guidance: Expect subscription and services revenue of $530M to $600M, in line with the $564M consensus. The outlook takes into account some modest headwinds, such as a 3% decline in the average price of ether (ETH-USD) in July as compared to Q2’s average, and expectations of a September Fed rate cut. Transaction expenses are targeted to be in the mid-teens as a percentage of net revenue. Guidance for technology and development + general and administrative expenses stood at $700M to $750M, which includes about $230M in stock-based compensation. Sales and marketing expenses are expected to be $160M to $210M, including ~$19M in stock-based compensation.
• Comment: Coinbase reported second-quarter revenue of US$1.45bn, slightly surpassing Wall Street estimates of US$1.4bn. Despite this, its adjusted EBITDA of US$596mn missed the consensus of US$607.7mn. Transaction fees, its primary income source, dropped 27% QoQ due to a 28% decline in trading volume. However, subscription and services revenue increased by 17%, benefiting from higher on-platform USDC balances and higher crypto asset prices. Additionally, with market optimism over regulatory easing, driven by the US SEC’s approval of ETFs for bitcoin and ether spurred this resurgence, trading volumes have revived. Coinbase is diversifying its revenue streams by participating in the spot bitcoin and ether ETFs business and exploring tokenized money-market funds. Total transaction revenue surged to US$780.9mn from US$327.1mn a year ago. Revenue from its subscription and services unit, particularly from stablecoin partnerships, also increased to US$599mn. Overall, Coinbase’s net revenue for the quarter was US$1.38bn, up from US$662.5mn the previous year. Despite regulatory uncertainties, overall optimism in the crypto market persists. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $200 to $225. Positive Outlook.

Coinbase全球 (COIN)

• 24财年第二季营收：14.5亿美元，同比增长39.1%，超预期9,000万美元
• 24财年第二季GAAP每股盈利：0.14美元，超预期0.78美元
• 24财年第三季指引：预计订阅和服务收入为5.3亿至6亿美元，与5.64亿美元的共识一致。展望考虑了一些温和的不利因素，例如7月份以太坊的平均价格与第二季度的平均价格相比下降了3%，以及9月份美联储降息的预期。交易费用的目标是占净收入的15%左右。技术和开发指引加上一般和管理费用为7亿至7.5亿美元，其中包括约2.3亿美元的股票薪酬。销售和营销费用预计为1.6亿至2.1亿美元，其中包括约1,900万美元的股票薪酬。
• 短评：Coinbase报告第二季度收入为14.5亿美元，略高于华尔街预期的14亿美元。尽管如此，其调整后的EBITDA为5.96亿美元，低于预期的6.077亿美元。由于交易量下降28%，其主要收入来源交易费环比下降27%。然而，订阅和服务收入增长了17%，受益于更高的平台上USDC余额和更高的加密资产价格。此外，由于美国证券交易委员会批准比特币和以太币ETF刺激了这一复苏，市场对监管宽松持乐观态度，交易量已经恢复。Coinbase正在通过参与现货比特币和以太币ETF业务，以及探索代币化货币市场基金，使其收入来源多样化。总交易收入从一年前的3.271亿美元飙升至7.809亿美元。其订阅和服务部门的收入，特别是稳定币合作伙伴的收入，也增加到5.99亿美元。总体而言，Coinbase本季度的净收入为13.8亿美元，高于去年的6.625亿美元。尽管监管存在不确定性，但加密市场的整体乐观情绪依然存在。24年第三季度建议交易区间：200至250美元。积极前景。

Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (MARA)

• 2Q24 Revenue: $145.14M, +77.5% YoY, miss estimates by $11.93M
• 2Q24 GAAP EPS: -$0.72, miss estimates by $0.63
• 3Q24 Guidance: No guidance provided.
• Comment: Marathon Digital reported second-quarter revenue of US$145.1mn, missing Wall Street’s estimate of US$157.9mn. Net loss increased to US$199.7mn, a US$0.72 loss per diluted share, from a net loss of US$9.0mn in the same period last year. This decrease in earnings was primarily driven by the unfavourable fair value of digital assets from a newly adopted fair value accounting rules issued. Operational challenges, equipment failures, and the April halving event impacted BTC production. Adjusted EBITDA swung to a loss of US$85.1mn from a previous gain of US$35.8mn. Despite this, Marathon achieved record mining power of 31.5 exahash per second and maintains its year-end hashrate target of 50 EH/s. The company sold 51% of mined BTC to cover costs but recently purchased US$100mn worth of bitcoin and plans to hold all BTC on its balance sheet, now totalling over 20,000 BTC. MARA’s ongoing internal restructuring is expected to dampen growth prospects for the current quarter. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $15 to $25. Neutral Outlook.

马拉松数字 (MARA)

• 24财年第二季营收：1.4514亿美元，同比增幅77.5%，逊预期1,193万美元
• 24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股亏损：0.72美元，超预期0.63
• 24财年第四季指引：不提供指引。
• 短评：马拉松数字公布第二季度收入为1.451亿美元，低于华尔街预期的1.579亿美元。净亏损从去年同期的净亏损900万美元增至1.997亿美元，摊薄后每股亏损0.72美元。收益下降的主要原因是新采用的公允价值会计规则对数字资产的公允价值不利。运营挑战、设备故障以及4月份的减半事件影响了BTC的产量。调整后的息税折旧及摊销前利润由先前的3,580万美元转为亏损8,510万美元。尽管如此，公司仍实现了每秒31.5 exahash的创纪录挖矿能力，并保持了其年底哈希率目标50 EH/s。该公司出售了51%的开采比特币以支付成本，但最近购买了价值1亿美元的比特币，并计划在其资产负债表上持有所有比特币，目前总计超过20,000个比特币。公司正在进行的内部重组预计将抑制本季度的增长前景。24年第四季度建议交易区间：15至25美元。中性前景。

DraftKings Inc (DKNG)

• 2Q24 Revenue: $1.1B, +25.7% YoY, miss estimates by $20M
• 2Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.22, beat estimates by $0.03
• FY24 Guidance: Boost its FY24 revenue guidance to a range of $5.05B to $5.25B, from the range of $4.80B to $5.00B. The company now expects FY24 adjusted EBITDA of between $340mn and $420mn, vs. a prior expectation for $460mn to $540mn.
• FY25 Guidance: Plans to implement a gaming tax surcharge in high tax states that have multiple mobile sports betting operators on 1 January 2025 which could drive adjusted EBITDA upside on an annual basis
• Share repurchase: Announced a $1.0B inaugural share repurchase authorization.
• Comment: For the second quarter, DraftKings delivered revenue of US$1.1bn and earnings per share of US$0.22, marking its first profitable quarter. Monthly average users increased 48% YoY to 3.1mn, although average revenue per user dropped 15% to US$117. Marketing expenses rose to US$215mn, reflecting an increase in customer acquisition costs. DraftKings slightly raised its 2024 revenue guidance to US$5.05bn to US$5.25bn but lowered its adjusted EBITDA guidance, partly due to higher taxes and its acquisition of the online lottery app Jackpocket. The company also announced a US$1bn stock repurchase plan. Adjusted EBITDA was US$127.9mn, up from US$73.0mn last year but below the US$133.2mn consensus, with adjusted EPS at US$0.22, beating the US$0.19 consensus. DraftKings lowered its FY24 adjusted EBITDA expectation to US$340mn to US$420mn and plans to implement a gaming tax surcharge in high-tax states in 2025. The surcharge will apply to net winnings in states with tax rates over 20% and multiple operators, such as New York, Pennsylvania, Vermont, and Illinois. Looking ahead, DraftKings’s strong customer growth and existing customer engagement are expected to continue through the quarter, resulting in continued growth in its profitability. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $30 to $45. Positive Outlook.

DraftKings (DKNG)

• 24财年第二季营收：11亿美元，同比增幅25.7%，逊预期2,000万美元
• 24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.22美元，超预期0.03美元
• 24财年指引：将其24财年收入指导从48亿美元至50亿美元上调至50.5亿美元至52.5亿美元。该公司目前预计24财年调整后的EBITDA在3.4亿美元至4.2亿美元之间，而此前的预期为4.6亿美元至5.4亿美元。
• 25财年指引：计划在2025年1月1日在拥有多家移动体育博彩运营商的高税收州实施博彩附加税，这可能会推动调整后的EBITDA每年上涨。
• 股票回购：宣布了10亿美元的首次股票回购授权。
• 短评：第二季度，DraftKings实现营收11亿美元，每股收益0.22美元，首次实现盈利。月平均用户同比增长48%至310万，但每用户平均收入下降15%至117美元。营销费用上升至2.15亿美元，反映了客户获取成本的增加。DraftKings略微上调了2024年营收预期，至50.5亿美元至52.5亿美元，但下调了调整后的EBITDA预期，部分原因是税收增加和收购在线彩票应用Jackpocket。该公司还宣布了一项10亿美元的股票回购计划。调整后的EBITDA为1.779亿美元，高于去年的7,300万美元，但低于1.332亿美元的预期，调整后的每股收益为0.22美元，高于预期的0.19美元。DraftKings将其24财年调整后的EBITDA预期下调至3.4亿美元至4.2亿美元，并计划于2025年在高税收州实施博彩附加税。该附加费将适用于税率超过20%的州和多个运营商的净奖金，如纽约州、宾夕法尼亚州、佛蒙特州和伊利诺伊州。展望未来，DraftKings强劲的客户增长和现有客户参与度预计将持续整个季度，从而使其盈利能力持续增长。24年第三季度建议交易区间：30至45美元。积极前景。